Editor’s note: John Packard is on vacation. It appears many steel buyers are holding off on purchases while they wait to see if imports resume from Canada, Mexico and Turkey now that President Trump has reversed himself on the Section 232 tariffs. “Lead times are stagnating/shortening and the mills are in full negotiation mode,” said […]
Now that the U.S. borders are open to tariff-free steel from Canada and Mexico, and lower-tariff steel from Turkey, can the market expect a flood of imports in the coming weeks and months? And what will that mean for steel prices? Last week, the Trump administration removed the 25 percent tariff on steel imports from […]
Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA) plans to increased steel production by 30 percent now that U.S. tariffs have been eliminated. The year-long Section 232 measures caused a 25 percent drop in AHMSA’s steel production and $300 million in lost revenue, said AHMSA President Alonso Ancira Elizondo. As orders from the U.S. fell due to the […]
U.S. gross domestic product grew in every region of the country in all four quarters of 2018, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. This week, the data was updated through Q4 2018. Even […]
In this report, we examine the change in currency values of the 16 pre-eminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the broad index value of the U.S. dollar. In fact, at any given time, some are always moving in the opposite direction. The latest value of […]
Steel prices declined yet again this week with some hot rolled offers falling below the $600 per ton level, according to Steel Market Update data. The market will be watching intently in the coming weeks to see if imports from Canada and Mexico add to the downward price pressure, now that President Trump has removed […]
Major steel producers in the U.S. had hoped the president wouldn’t blink on the Section 232 tariffs on Canada and Mexico—but he did—in an apparent effort to clear the way for passage of the new North American free trade agreement. Now the mills are supporting the administration’s demand that steel trade in North America be […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and Analyst Ryan McKinley Steel imports to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico prior to the S232 tariffs were near 12 Mt on an annualized basis. Data from this past March and April show arrivals closer to 7.5 Mt annually. With the end of the S232 on the U.S.’s […]
U.S. steel imports are trending a bit lower in May after a significant jump in April, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Commerce Department license data. With about 10 days left in the month, it appears May imports will approach 2.7 million tons, down from approximately 2.9 million tons in April. May imports are […]
Like everyone else in the steel industry, members of the Heating, Air-conditioning and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) are wondering what will happen to supply and prices now that the Trump administration has lifted the Section 232 tariffs on steel imports from Canada and Mexico and cut in half the tariffs on steel imports from Turkey. […]
Rail transport is a critical link in getting steel to market. With domestic mills cranking out steel at more than 80 percent of their capacity, are the railroads struggling to keep up? “People assume our business should be booming, but it’s not as straightforward as one would think,” said JR (Jim) Schaaf, Group Vice President […]
Premium subscribers to Steel Market Update have reports available on our website that break out the import tonnage into district of entry and source nation for six sheet and plate product categories. This report takes the total national tonnage of hot rolled and breaks it down into product detail. Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) […]
Demand for long products and tubular goods have shown strong growth, but sheet products are declining. This analysis by SMU staff is based on data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 through March 2019 and year-on-year […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, SMU has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled, then it breaks out four thickness ranges and identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through March 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports […]
On Friday, May 17, President Trump concurred with findings by the Commerce Department that imports of automotive vehicles and parts threatened to impair national security. As a result, the President directed the U.S. Trade Representative to pursue negotiation of agreements with the EU and Japan, and any other country the Trade Representative deems appropriate, to […]
I am in Atlanta speaking at a supplier conference for an OEM both today and again on Thursday. As expected, the questions were about Mexico and Canada and where prices go from here. There were also questions about our index versus the CRU index (different methodologies). I am looking forward to revising and doing it […]
The Trump administration has cut the U.S. tariffs on steel imports from Turkey in half, trimming them from 50 percent back to 25 percent where they were originally set last August. In a statement on Friday, the White House noted that imports of steel into the U.S. declined by 12 percent overall last year, and […]
The agreement to terminate Section 232 tariffs on Canada and Mexico and all retaliatory tariffs was welcomed by many industry associations. As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in his announcement remarks on Friday, it was “pure good news.” “On behalf of the membership of the CSPA, we thank the Government of Canada for its significant […]
The U.S. has agreed to lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Mexico and Canada, removing a major roadblock to the ratification of the new North American trade agreement. The Section 232 tariffs, imposing a 25 percent tax on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum, have been in place just over one year. The tariffs […]
Although not a disaster, steel demand has fallen short of expectations so far in 2019, contributing to the downtrend in steel prices. The benchmark price for hot rolled steel has declined by double digits since the beginning of the year. Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market over the past week reveals that many service […]
Flat rolled steel prices continue to be under pressure even though mill capacity utilization rates continue to be above 80 percent. However, our own analysis of the flat rolled markets has been showing a steady decline in lead times, which suggests weakening order books. One thing those involved in the steel industry need to be […]
Final Census data shows that steel imports into the U.S. were well below average in March at 2.26 million tons, but have trended up sharply in April and May. Based on license data, April imports jumped by more than 28 percent to nearly 2.9 million tons, largely due to a 450,000-ton increase in semi-finished imports, […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Several notices have been published in the last few days, signaling the new reality of the contentious trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. USTR issued a notice, which has not yet been seen in the Federal Register, […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The announcements over the last few days have substantially altered the steel and aluminum trade policy priorities of the United States. I am referring, of course, to the following: (1) the U.S. has dropped steel and aluminum tariffs […]
March apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,601,722 net tons, according to data released late last week. Apparent steel supply is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. March apparent steel supply saw a 333,756 ton or 3.4 percent decrease compared to the same month […]
I have moved from our Steel 101 workshop in Iowa to Minnesota where I met with a large flat rolled service center this afternoon. The service centers are consistently reporting to SMU that the domestic steel mills are just plain producing too much steel. With scrap down and the marginal cost to produce a hot […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level members in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Rolled product imports declined by 24.4 percent in April year over year on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This early look at April’s import volume is based […]
By the CRU Economics Team The Turkish economy is suffering its first recession in a decade. This has had knock-on effects on the global steel market, given Turkey’s prominence in this industry. A key question for the steel market is therefore, how long will the recession in Turkey last? We think that in the most […]
President Trump could decide this week whether to extend the Section 232 tariffs to imports of vehicles and auto parts. May 18 is the deadline for the president to act on the Commerce Department report submitted back in February. As with the steel industry, the administration has argued that a strong automotive industry is essential […]
Opponents of the proposed Section 232 tariffs on imports of autos and auto parts have won at least a temporary reprieve. On Friday, President Trump announced that he will wait six months before reconsidering the tariffs to give the U.S. Trade Representative time to negotiate new agreements on automotive trade with Europe and Japan. In […]