The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for March rose sharply to the first positive reading in seven months. The index gained 15.2 points to register 12.4. The index for new orders jumped 21 points to 15.7, returning to growth status, while shipments climbed 20 points. Both unfilled orders and deliver times improved in March, […]
U.S. manufacturers are taking a firm stance against market economy status for China. AISI announced formation of a coalition, Manufacturers for Trade Enforcement, to oppose China’s request for market economy designation at the end of 2016. The coalition says China does not meet the established criteria for a market economy. “Our industries can compete against […]
Flat rolled steel prices continued to move higher over the past week. We are seeing even the weakest product, hot rolled, gaining traction as lead times move out due to the shutdown of US Steel and AK Steel mills (Granite City and Ashland). SMU was advised by both steel mills and steel buyers that orders […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey recorded its first positive reading since July of 2015. The March general business conditions index rose 17 points to 0.6 bolstered by increases in new orders and shipments. New orders jumped 21 points to 9.6 after several months of decline. Shipments surged 25 points to register 13.9 Survey results suggest […]
The Great Lakes 2016 shipping season commenced on March 2 with a load of iron ore for ArcelorMittal Cleveland. The tug/barge Dorothy Ann/Pathfinder loaded 14,600 tons of iron ore at the Cleveland Bulk Terminal to deliver to ArcelorMittal on the Cuyahoga River. The barge was about 4,600 tons shy of a full load due to […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday in their analysis of non-farm employment that 242,000 jobs were added in February, up from 172,000 in January, December and January were revised up by a total of 30,000. More detail on this report is included at the end of this piece. The three month moving […]
Mill lead times, especially on cold rolled and coated products, continue to be a concern as buyers navigate/negotiate pricing and deliveries on future orders. The longer the lead time the more steel that is needed in the pipeline at both manufacturing companies and distributors. The longer lead times provide ammunition to the domestic steel mills […]
Brian Jackson, China economist for IHS Global Insight, issued the following note on China’s Steel Production Capacity. Key Points At the National People’s Congress, Hebei Province governor Zhang Qingwei announced he plans to cut just under 200 million of steel production capacity by 2020, or about 60% of current production capacity. By the end of […]
The Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) has selected the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, International® (FMA) to manage their association. ASD will continue to operate as an independent association, but will rely on FMA for management of its day-to-day affairs, membership relations and development, event planning, compliance and reporting issues, and general operation needs. For 73 […]
One of the key items Steel Market Update reports on twice a month to our Premium level members is the manufacturing view of service center spot pricing and the distributors’ view of how their companies are handling spot pricing into the end users. From this report we are able to determine if domestic mill price […]
Platts publishes a monthly China Steel Sentiment Index. The following is a press release from Platts regarding the latest survey results: BEIJING, March 8, 2016 – Optimism has returned to the Chinese steel market on the back of buoyant domestic demand for steel and stronger prices, resulting in the Platts China Steel Sentiment Index (CSSI) […]
The following is a reprint of an article by Dr. Mark J. Perry in response to the Wall Street Journal article about the duties imposed on imports of cold-rolled steel from China that SMU publisher John Packard was quoted in. Dr. Perry is a Scholar at The American Enterprise Institute and Professor of Finance and […]
Ted Cruz said it best the other night while debating Donald Trump, “breathe, breathe, breathe….” While speaking to one of my longtime steel buying contacts we began discussing the mentality to this market as there are many “unknowns” such as exactly what the heck is going on in China. We were discussing the difference between […]
A quick note to our Premium level and free trial subscribers: We have just published the results from this week’s flat rolled steel market trends analysis (survey) on our website. It is available to you once you have signed into the www.SteelMarketUpdate.com website. The power point presentation can be found under the analysis tab. A […]
Earlier this week Steel Market Update (SMU) began canvassing the flat rolled steel markets in order to better appreciate how buyers and sellers of steel are viewing their company’s ability to be successful in the market today (Current) as well as out three to six months (Future). Their responses result in the publication of the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, David Feldstein is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our […]
Factory orders for manufactured goods grew 1.6 percent in January, following a 2.9 percent decrease in December and showing the largest increase since June. Durable goods orders rose 4.7 percent led by transportation equipment orders that were up 11.4 percent in January. Nondurable goods dropped 1.4 percent to $226.8 billion. Factory orders came in below […]
Steel prices continued their three month hike higher as SMU benchmark hot rolled price index (average) for the month was $408 per ton. Even with some minor stumbles noted in hot rolled and cold rolled during the second half of the month, our Price Momentum Indicator is still pointing toward higher prices over the next […]
Construction spending soared in January from a month earlier and all major segments posted hefty year-over-year gains, pushing the total to the highest level since October 2008, according to an analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America. Association officials said the new spending figures indicate that demand for construction remains robust amid broader economic […]
The U.S. manufacturing sector in February remained in contraction for the fifth consecutive month according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The PMI did better than expected by economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Barclays who predicted a headline index of 48 and 47.5, respectively. The February PMI increased 1.3 percentage […]
The following article is one of the key proprietary products produced for our Premium level members. We wanted to share it with all of our readers this evening to give everyone a feel for how we are seeing the steel economy based on “the numbers.” An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at […]
Durable goods in January rose 4.9 percent in January, reversing a December’s plunge of 4.6 and perhaps indicating stabilization for U.S. manufacturing. The January jump was the biggest monthly gain since March 2015. Orders rose for all major categories of the industrial goods but especially for autos and aircraft. The chart below, depicting the three […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of the direction of steel demand with a six to nine month […]
Once a month HARDI wholesalers conduct a conference call for those member companies who are involved in the sale of galvanized sheet and coils to the mechanical contractors involved in residential and commercial construction. Steel Market Update publisher, John Packard, has been involved with the HARDI organization for many years going back to his steel […]
There has been too little attention paid to the passage of the ENFORCE Act by the U.S. Congress a few weeks back. At least that is how trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz sees it. He warned those at our 2015 Steel Summit Conference that the domestic steel mills were trying to build a “dam” against steel […]
Metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada are expecting slightly improved business conditions in the next three months. Surveyed members of the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) reported average daily shipping levels in February were higher than three months ago and anticipate steady order activity for the next three months. Companies reporting workers on short time […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been slowly rising since the domestic mills made price increase announcements in early December 2015. Even though the trend has been for higher steel prices for almost three months now, 37 percent of those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends analysis this past week believe prices will rise […]
One of the questions being asked in the marketplace is how much foreign steel is being ordered and will there be a flood of imports as we move into the months of May and June. There is a portion of the market who believe there will be a flood while others are of the opinion […]
I received a comment/question over the weekend regarding our SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The comment came in the form of a LinkedIn comment to one of our posts regarding the most recent Sentiment Index announcement. The question was from a financial analyst who asked us why our Sentiment Index did not reflect the WARN […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 107.9108 in December 2014 but on a month over month basis has declined for nine of the last thirteen months. January was a welcome respite with an increase of 0.92 percent, which is huge, and […]