The CRUspi fell by 8.3% month over month (m/m) in March to 206.6 as weaker-than-expected demand weighed on markets around the world. Price falls were notable across all regions, with elevated inventory levels pushing prices in the US and Europe, and disappointing stimulus measures from the Chinese government weighing on those in Asia.
In this Premium analysis we cover North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels.
Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index recovered out of contraction territory on the heels of the pricing blitz from mills last week, according to our latest survey data.
Flat Rolled = 56.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 58.8 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled After weaker-than-expected shipments in January, US service center shipments of flat-rolled steel picked up in February, which caused supply to decrease. At the end of February, service centers carried 56.6 shipping days of flat-rolled steel supply on an […]
SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down while the Future Sentiment Index ticked up, according to our most recent survey data
According to the latest “Index of Net New Orders of Aluminum Mill Products” released by the US Aluminum Association (AA), total orders in February 2024 were up 9.3% compared to February 2023. This is a noticeable improvement from the growth of 2.1% year over year (y/y) seen in January.
To the surprise of few if any, prices are in a holding pattern – a trend not seen since late December. The pause comes largely in response to a pricing notice blitz from mills late last week.
Prices of most steelmaking raw materials have moved lower over the last 30 days, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis.
Nucor said on Thursday afternoon it expects higher profits in the first quarter vs. the previous quarter but lower than a year earlier.
Steel buyers found mills more willing to negotiate spot pricing on the products SMU tracks with the exception of hot rolled, according to our most recent survey data.
US hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains more expensive than offshore hot band, even as domestic prices remain under pressure. The premium domestic product had over imports for roughly five months now remains near parity as tags abroad and stateside inch down.
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices has narrowed for the third consecutive month in March, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.
The ferrous scrap market experienced a sharp decline for March shipments. Prime scrap fell $60-70 per gross ton (gt) while shredded and other obsolete grades declined $40-50/gt. It seems these prices were accepted in the trade by dealers across the continent.
Sheet and plate prices were mostly flat this week – largely in response to the mill price blitz from last week – pausing the downtrend they’d been on for the better part of 2024.
US ferrous scrap prices fell steeply in March for HMS, shredded, and prime scrap, sources told SMU.
Estelle Tran, prices lead at CRU, Michael Cowden, managing editor at SMU and Josh Spoores, principal analyst at CRU, will be the featured speakers on a special CRU webinar. It will take place on Thursday, March 21, at 10 a.m. ET. You can learn more and register here.
As I see it, the market looked to be a perfect storm for consumers this month while two large steel mills tried to put a floor on hot-rolled coil (HRC). One source speculated that “flat rolled mills coordinated their downtime and will take out 250,000 tons of capacity in April,” which made them attempt to put a bottom on flat-rolled product.
Reaction to the price announcements last week by domestic mills varied just a little depending on who you were speaking to. I heard rumblings before the announcements that a price hike of $100 per short ton (st) was coming. After the announcements were made, I had some questions as to whether they were increases at all.
The LME three-month price continued to strengthen through Friday, March 8, defending its position close to its five-week high and rising further to $2,262 per metric ton (mt), up 0.3%, on the day. Gains were also noted over the last week in other industrial metals, including copper, zinc, and lead. The price gains appeared to be due to weakness in the US dollar, which fell sharply against a basket of currencies after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that rate cuts were still expected this year.
A weak start for sheet demand this year has continued to weigh on global prices. European demand outside of the renewable energy sector was weak enough that market participants said mills are likely to cut output further after several furnace restarts earlier in the year. In China, demand has also failed to pick up after recent holidays, and even government announcements of more stimulus measures during the country’s “Two Sessions” meetings failed to boost market confidence.
The premium plate prices have held over hot-rolled coil (HRC) are nowhere near recent highs seen in 2022 but remain higher compared to historical levels.
The US plate market has been largely quiet over the past week since Nucor’s $90-per-ton price cut at the close of February.
ArcelorMittal is targeting a minimum base price for hot-rolled (HR) coil of $825 per ton. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker said the new floor price was effective immediately in a letter to its commercial team dated Friday, March 8.
A Detroit-area mill entered the scrap market on Thursday offering down $70 per gross ton (gt) on #1 busheling. And Nucor announced a minimum base price of $825 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil. What's the best way to interpret would could be read as contradictory trends?
Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs on Thursday announced target minimum base prices for hot-rolled (HR) coil. Both said the moves were effective immediately.
The price premium cold-rolled coil (CRC) carries over hot-rolled coil (HRC) remains wide, according to our latest market check. Based on our steel price indices published Tuesday, the spread between these products is at the fifth-highest weekly level seen over the last 16 months.
US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is now just about 5% more expensive than offshore hot band. The premium domestic product had over imports for roughly five months is all but gone, and nearing parity.
A Detroit area steelmaker this morning announced its offers for scrap for March scrap shipments. The drop in its offer prices were larger than most industry observes forecasted, especially for shredded scrap. Many in the scrap community had predicted that prime scrap would drop $40-50 per gross ton (gt) with shredded only down $30-40/gt. But other market participants were skeptical about these predictions given bearishness in ferrous markets, both domestically and abroad.
What are folks in the steel industry talking about at present? Respondents to SMU’s mini-survey this week shared some of their thoughts with us about what's going on in the market. Rather than summarizing their responses, here’s some of what they had to say in their own words.
Consumer confidence in the US declined in February after accelerating to a two-year high the month prior, The Conference Board reported. Results came in amid ongoing concerns regarding the US economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index declined to 106.7 in February from a downwardly revised 110.9 in January. The index, which measures Americans’ assessment of […]