The Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) will host a Regional Meeting at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Cleveland, Ohio on Thursday, September 12th. The keynote speaker for the evening is Ohio Governor, John Kasich. Go to the ASD website for more information and registration: www.SteelDistributors.org.
The ASD will also host their Annual Fall Conference at the Encore Resort at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas, NV on October 24 through October 26, 2013.
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) will hold their annual Steel Summit Conference in Schaumburg, IL at the Marriott Renaissance Schaumburg Convention Center Hotel. The conference will be held on September 9th and 10th. For more information got to the MSCI website: www.MSCI.org.
Monday, September 1st is Labor Day and Steel Market Update will not publish again until Tuesday evening, September 2nd.
We will begin our next steel market survey on Tuesday morning, September 2nd.
Our next Monthly Newsletter (Volume 1 issue 2) will be published early next week. We will provide a copy to our existing members. For those who are interested, the cost for an annual subscription to the Monthly Newsletter will be $300. I have had a couple of companies mention that it would be perfect for the president or CEO of their company…
For those in the U.S. enjoy the long Holiday Weekend as summer begins to wind down.
For all of us here at Steel Market Update we truly appreciate your business and support. We couldn’t have lasted this long without you.
John PackardRead more from John Packard
Latest in Final Thoughts
What are some “Black Swans” to watch out for? With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, your mind might understandably move to conflicts overseas. Here is one closer to home to consider: US trade relations with Mexico taking a turn for the worse. I mention that because the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) dropped a (virtual) bombshell earlier this month.
Domestic prices have been sliding since the beginning of the year, and I don’t see any obvious reasons why the slide might stop this week. But let’s put the timing of a bottom aside for a minute. The question among some of you seems to be whether we’ll see another price spike, or at least a “dead-cat bounce,” before the typical summer doldrums kick in.
I’ve had discussions with some of you lately about where and when sheet prices might bottom. Some of you say that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won’t fall below $800 per short ton (st). Others tell me that bigger buyers aren’t interested unless they can get something that starts with a six. Obviously a lot depends on whether we're talking 50 tons or 50,000 tons. I've even gotten some guff about how the drop in US prices is happening only because we’re talking about it happening.
We’ve all heard a lot about mill “discipline” following a wave of consolidation over the last few years. That discipline is often evident when prices are rising, less so when they are falling. I remember hearing earlier this year that mills weren’t going to let hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fall below $1,000 per short ton (st). Then not below $900/st. Now, some of you tell me that HR prices in the mid/high-$800s are the “1-800 price” – widely available to regular spot buyers. So what comes next, and will mills “hold the line” in the $800s?
Everyone knows the old saying that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Just because it’s a cliché doesn’t mean that it’s wrong. A lot of inked has been spilled trying to figure out why prices are falling now. I thought it might be as simple as this: Market dynamics in the fourth quarter (UAW strike, companies buying ahead of an anticipated post-strike price spike, etc.) pulled forward restocking activity that typically happens in the first quarter.