Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 16, 2014
I was reading the most recent economic forecast from the Institute for Trend Research (ITR) on the plane to Chicago this morning. Their analysts have an interesting take on the 2014 economy and we will share portions of their views with you beginning with Sunday evening’s newsletter. One item that caught my eye is their suggestion that now is the time for company’s to hire and train employees in order to be prepared for the up cycle which they think will begin later this year and into 2015. Steel Market Update happens to agree and that is one of the reasons why we are producing the steel training workshops that we have and working on creating new ones. Now is the time to prepare yourselves and your team for a better (albeit competitive) market which will be here sooner than we all may realize.
Our Steel 101: Introduction to Steelmaking & Market Fundamentals workshop is an excellent program to send both new and experienced employees. We work on broadening their knowledge of not only how steel is made but, perhaps more importantly, how it is used. We discuss how steel is bought and sold and market forces which impact pricing and competition. You can find more details on our website or by contacting our office at: 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Next workshop is February 4 & 5, 2014 in Mobile, Alabama and includes a tour of the SSAB steel mill.
I am speaking at the AWMI dinner in Chicago this evening. A special thank you to the ladies of the AWMI for their invitation and the opportunity to speak to their group.
I will be in New York City next week for the AHR Expo – if you would like to speak to me during the show please drop me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we will arrange a time to meet.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?
Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.