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    Analysis

    January 18, 2014

    Housing Permits & Starts Growth Slowed Throughout 2013

    Written by Peter Wright

    The most significant observation about housing permits and starts in 2013 was how the growth rate of both single and multi-family slowed progressively during the year. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the year-over-year growth rate of single family declined from 29.6 percent in March to 10.8 percent in December as multi-family declined from 51.1 percent in February to 13.7 percent in December.

    The good news is that the 3MMA of total starts exceeded a million in the Q4 for the first time since the recession. The decline in the y/y growth rates is probably a result of the mortgage shock in the spring when rates rose by about 1 percent. In Q4 the growth trajectory of both single and multi-family returned to their previous levels (Figure 1). At the present rate of increase, single family could reach the one million rate around October next year.

    Peter Wright

    Read more from Peter Wright

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