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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    A reminder right up front that Steel Market Update will not publish on Thursday and Sunday evenings due to the 4th of July holiday here in the United States. We will return to our regular schedule beginning on Tuesday of next week. If, by chance, there is some breaking news which needs to be covered we will publish a limited newsletter to cover that topic. We will also post blog posts on our website to assist in keeping our members abreast of what is going on in the steel world.

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    Latest in Analysis

    ArcelorMittal sees N. American shipments flat in Q4 as Calvert ramps up

    ArcelorMittal expects North American steel shipments to be flat sequentially in the fourth quarter, as recovery from Canadian and Mexican disruptions is expected to be offset by normal seasonality and maintenance. The company reported third-quarter shipments of 2.645 million metric tons, down 6.6% sequentially but up 1% year over year (y/y). It attributed the shipment decline primarily to lower long product volumes. North America sales were nearly $3.7 billion in Q3’26, nearly level with the previous quarter but 11% higher y/y. Average selling prices rose 5.7% sequentially to $1,228 per metric ton (mt).

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.