Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 30, 2014
A reminder right up front that Steel Market Update will not publish on Thursday and Sunday evenings due to the 4th of July holiday here in the United States. We will return to our regular schedule beginning on Tuesday of next week. If, by chance, there is some breaking news which needs to be covered we will publish a limited newsletter to cover that topic. We will also post blog posts on our website to assist in keeping our members abreast of what is going on in the steel world.
Our office will remain open on Wednesday and Thursday of this week but we will be closed for the 4th of July on Friday. So, if you want to renew, add more people to your account, become a new member, register for our Steel Summit Conference or our next Steel 101 workshop – we are here to assist you: 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com
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The ferrous scrap market is still shaking itself out with only limited sales concluded. Our understanding is the domestic mills did not cancel their remaining June tonnage which is a signal that the mills do not expect prices to drop. We continue to hear from our sources that prices will be modestly higher in July and depending on the region and product prices should move sideways to up by as much as $20 per gross ton. We think the average will be in the $10-$15 range but, negotiations continue.
I want to wish everyone a safe holiday weekend with your family and friends.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Founder and Publisher
Have you invited your friends to meet you in Atlanta on September 3 & 4?
John Packard
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Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.
Final thoughts
We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.
Final thoughts
I think all of us know that sometimes courtships go wrong. A misplaced word or deed and soon things can go sideways, and not in the prices sense. Such could be the case with Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel’s play for U.S. Steel.
Final thoughts
We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.
Final thoughts
The phrase “political football” has been tossed around a lot lately. (Pun probably intended.) For the humble journalists at SMU who thought the week following Steel Summit would prove a quiet one… the news cycle had other ideas