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    Analysis

    New Home Sales Return to Trend with Drop of 8.1%

    Written by Sandy Williams


    New home sales were disappointing in June, dropping 8.1 percent below the revised rate May rate of 442,000 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 406,000, according to estimates by the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    The drop is “a return to trend rather than a change of direction,” says National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) analyst Robert Denk. The underlying trend since 2012 has been upward, said Denk, despite volatility in the second half of 2013 and early 2014.

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    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.