SMU Data and Models

SMU HR Price MoMo Index Lower Pricing Trend in Seventh Month
Written by Brett Linton
February 25, 2015
This week the Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. is showing hot rolled coil price momentum continuing its downward trend for the 27th week in a row (6+ months!). MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the previous 12-week average spot price as recorded by Steel Market Update.
MoMo was measured at -11.11 percent this week, meaning that the current HRC price is lower than the average price over the last 12 weeks.
The change in MoMo can be a useful indicator in depicting the severity of price movements and evaluating the directional trend for flat rolled steel pricing. The week-over-week change in MoMo was -1.07 percent, following a +2.34 percent change the week before. This indicates that hot rolled prices are declining compared to the previous week.
Looking at this change on a 3-week moving average, we see the trend for HRC prices is back to negative after slightly poking into positive territory last week. The 3-week average change in MoMo is -0.75 percent, following a change of +0.01 the week before.
The interactive graph below demonstrates the relationship between the SMU hot rolled coil price, the SMU Price MoMo Index, and the three week moving average change in the MoMo Index. Published in our Tuesday evening issue, the SMU HRC price range for this week is $480-$520 per ton with an average price of $500, down $15 from last week.
SMU Note: You can view the interactive graphic on our Price MoMo Index below when you are logged into the website and reading the newsletter online. If you have not logged into the website in the past and need your username and password, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475. If you need help navigating the website we would also be very happy to assist you.
{amchart id=”138″ SMU HR Price MoMo Index and 3 Week Average Change – Prices Pricing Hot Rolled}

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models

Steelmaking raw material costs mixed through May
According to our latest analysis, prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track increased from April to May. However, select materials saw a collective 1% decline month over month and are down 4% compared to three months ago.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.

Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.