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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    This will be another interesting week for the steel industry. We have US Steel and AK Steel announcing their earnings and conducting conference calls with analysts. Will any of the mills make a move to push prices prior to one of these conference calls (mills have done it in the past)? There continues to be the ever present rumor of trade suits. One of the analysts contacted me late last week to say they heard cold rolled will be filed this week. So, the market continues to wonder what will come first: price increase or dumping suits?

    Our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals has room for about 6 more people. The workshop will be held in Merrillville, Indiana just outside of Chicago and close to our mill tour facility which is NLMK USA Portage, Indiana mini-mill. The cost of the program is $2000 per person with discounts available for Steel Market Update member companies and for those companies sending more than one person. Our instructors: John Eckstein, Peter Wright, Steve Painter, Mario Briccetti and myself are all prepared to hold a great program for all of our attendees. If you should have any questions or would like to learn more about our Steel 101 program you can reach us at: 800-432-3475 or by email at: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. You are also welcome to contact me directly, as I am out of the office this week, by calling me at: 770-596-6268. We want to see you at this or one of our future workshops. The next Steel 101 workshop will be in Iowa in the early Fall 2015. More details to be announced soon.

    Latest in Analysis

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.