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    Analysis

    July 22, 2015

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    A quote from one of our Steel Summit 2015 keynote speakers, “Although the price of oil seems to be more tied to the dollar, there is some supply and demand factors that can impact the magnitude of the impact of the dollar’s value on the per barrel price. Therefore, we have to watch what the introduction of Iranian oil on the market will do to the price, and what happens if we get some sort of supply disruption. For now, the dollar is going to get stronger over the next few quarters and the price of oil is going to continue to go down.”

    As Sandra Williams pointed out in her article about Nucor in tonight’s issue (above), the steel mills are stoked with the new wording they got through the U.S. Congress. There was a structural tubing trade case announced earlier this week. Over time, as HSS tubing inventories start to dwindle there will be an impact on hot rolled sales out of the domestic mills here in the United States. The rumor mill is flush with those who believe that there will be a cold rolled trade suit filed before the end of this month (we also believe that a suit will be filed). With the new trade language look for the mills to take an aggressive stance and perhaps pick on a lot more countries than what you would expect. We all know China will be hit but they won’t be alone. Hot rolled suits could follow in the coming months.

    John Packard

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