Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 9, 2015
I am here in New York City participating in the Cowen & Company Global Metals and Mining Conference. Day one was dedicated to the steel industry and the various commodities (scrap, iron ore, metallurgical coal). I thought I would provide a snapshot into some of the comments made during the conference by various CEO’s.
Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources told the group that the preliminary countervailing duty results on the CORE trade suit “was better than expected.” He pointed to the 1998 hot rolled case that he was involved in saw much lower preliminary duties than what were announced last week.
Jim Wainscott, CEO of AK Steel (about to become Chairman of the Board) said, “There is no doubt in my mind that prices could pop back to previous levels [earlier he referenced $650 per ton].” He backed off the initial enthusiasm when he went on to say, “We will return to normal levels, whatever that means.”
Gregg Mollins, CEO of Reliance Steel & Aluminum said the service centers apparently did not learn their lesson in 2009 when it came to inventories. He said when distributors have bad years it is almost always related to inventory levels. He told the group that Reliance managed their inventories, they don’t speculate and they were able to raise margins during 2015.
Mario Longhi, CEO of US Steel said that they are spending time with the ITC commissioners as they want to make sure they have an understanding of “injury” which previously had been taken totally out of context.
Jim Wainscott told the group, “You have to play hardball with China.”
The CEO’s pointed out that the prices outside of China are $20 to $30 per ton higher than when China is involved in exporting steel to that country.
On a personal front I was able to secure one of our keynote speakers for next year’s Steel Summit Conference… (August 30-31, 2016 in Atlanta).
As always your business is truly appreciated.
John Packard, Publisher
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John Packard
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Final thoughts
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
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Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
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Final thoughts
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
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Final thoughts
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
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Final thoughts
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!