• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    July 20, 2016

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    The spread between hot rolled and cold rolled/coated steels continues to be at dangerous (my opinion) levels. The U.S. steel industry has been systematically “building a dam” (Lewis Leibowitz words) around this country in order to prevent what they call unfairly subsidized and unfairly traded plate, hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The combination of restricting domestic production with the close-down of the hot end (steelmaking) at AK Steel Ashland and US Steel Granite City along with the affirmations of dumping being reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce has taken U.S. steel prices out of sync with the rest of the world. The domestic mills are getting short term benefits but, the long-term consequences could be quite a different story.

    “The high domestic pricing is causing our customers to look offshore for their products and you can’t blame them. We can offer the best service and delivery but when offshore goods are 25% to 30% below our costs, we can’t compete.” This quote was left behind by a manufacturing company as they participated in our mid-July steel survey. Our Sentiment Index high optimistic trend has been broken and we will have to wait and see if there are long-term consequences to the building of the dam without balancing the competitiveness of the domestic manufacturing industry.

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Analysis

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.