• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    January 27, 2017

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    Please be advised that I will be traveling to Tampa, Florida and will be at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference on Monday and Tuesday of this week. I will return to my office on Wednesday. For those of you who have not been to a steel conference, the Port of Tampa is a good one that will not break the bank. Of course, if you only can go to one steel conference, I highly recommend our own Steel Summit Conference which will be in Atlanta, Georgia at the end of August (28th, 29th and 30th of August).

    We are going to begin our early February flat rolled steel market analysis (survey) beginning at 8 AM ET on Monday, January 30th. We will send out approximately 630 invitations to people representing over 600 companies involved in the production, distribution, manufacturing or processing of flat rolled steel. The vast majority of the invitations focus on manufacturing and distribution which are the two largest buying segments for the steel mills. We will be asking questions about whether those in the industry think flat rolled steel prices have “peaked” or does the bull have room to run?

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.