Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 13, 2017
A note to service centers: SMU is working on a new prime flat rolled distributor inventory index and trends analysis. If your company is interested in participating or if you have any questions, please send me a note: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
The hurricane saga continues, and I want to take a moment to wish those who have been impacted by either Harvey or Irma best wishes and a quick recovery from whatever damage you might have suffered. To our readers, if it is possible, please contribute to the American Red Cross (www.redcross.org) or another disaster relief organization.
We are back in Hobe Sound where both our home and office were untouched by the storm. Brett Linton in our Georgia office has not been quite so lucky and has been without power since Monday when a tree came down in their neighborhood and took out all of the wires. To date, the tree and the wires remain where they fell and Brett has been working at his in-laws and Chick-Fil-A (so, we have to give a shout out to his in-laws and Chick-Fil-A for helping with tonight’s issue).
I spoke about the new service center index we have been working on for about three months. The service centers who participate will receive the results before they are offered out to our subscribers. Our goal is to produce the index within the first 10 days of each new month. I will continue to “tweak” the index over the next few months. If you have suggestions on what you would like for us to cover and how you would like to see the information portrayed, please send me an email. I have a good idea as to what I would like to accomplish and I will be sharing those thoughts directly with the companies who have volunteered to share information (confidentially) with us. I will be sending a report on Friday to the service centers who participated this week.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final thoughts
Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)
Final thoughts
Everybody has a plan… until they’ve dealt with volatility in the HRC market. While Mike Tyson’s original quote was about getting punched in the mouth, it’s unlikely the ex-champ has gone many pricing rounds with hot-rolled coil.
Final thoughts
Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.
Final thoughts
What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]
Final thoughts
I’ve gotten some questions lately about whether the huge gap between domestic hot-rolled coil (HR) prices and those for cold-rolled (CR) and coated is sustainable. I remember being asked similar questions about the wide spread between HR and plate that developed in early 2022. I thought at the time that there was no way that spread could hold. Turned out, I was wrong. That was humbling. And so I’m not going to make any bold predictions this time.