Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 6, 2017
This evening I received a note from a reliable source advising me that AM/NS Calvert had been hit by a tornado associated with Hurricane Nate on Saturday. The information provided noted there was damage to the administration building, a storage building and some power lines on the property. There was no mention of any injuries. The note seen by SMU indicated that the mill would begin production at 3 P.M. on Sunday. We reached out to our media contacts at ArcelorMittal for comment, but had not heard back before our publishing deadline. We will continue to follow this story and will report on what we learn from ArcelorMittal once they respond to our requests for information.
Cable news is reporting that President Trump is considering “decertifying” the treaty with Iran, which is preventing them from developing nuclear weapons. Depending on the news source you listen to, the reasons for the potential decertification appear to be related to President Trump not liking what he perceives as the terms of the agreement. At what point does “ethics” become part of the narrative? Or is ethics always involved in each decision made?
How different is the president decertifying a treaty he doesn’t like from a purchasing manager canceling a contract or an order that is no longer priced in his company’s favor? At what point does trust between customers and suppliers become an issue?
Steel Market Update would like to hear from you and your company about experiences (and resolutions) that saved relationships, allowed trust to continue to exist between supplier and customer and how “ethics” fit into the equation. You can send your thoughts to Tim Triplett at Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com or myself at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I am finally back in my office for a few days (leaving on Friday) and I will be working with the 40+ service centers signed up to participate in our flat rolled steel inventories analysis as we attempt to better determine inventories on the floor of the distributors and the need of service centers to replenish or draw down inventories in the coming months. All of the information collected by SMU will be kept in strictest confidence. We will not provide information regarding what companies are involved or any individual company’s data. If your company would like to participate, send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Another day, another massive gap between the news and market sentiment. On the news side, we’ve got war in the Middle East. The devastation facing western North Carolina coming into tragic focus. And the outcome of the presidential election remains a coin toss, according to current polling.
Final thoughts
There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.
Final thoughts
Washington loomed large in our surveys this week. Two things actually: the upcoming presidential election and the trade case against imported coated products from 10 nations.
Final thoughts
Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.
Final thoughts
SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday: