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    Analysis

    Auto Production: Mexico Keeps Winning

    Written by Peter Wright


    The volume of light vehicle assemblies in the U.S. and Canada is declining at more than 15 percent per year as Mexico’s volume is increasing by 7.7 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of auto production in the NAFTA region.

    U.S. Vehicle Sales: U.S. new-vehicle sales surged in September to 18.6 million units. This was the highest since July 2005 and a 5.5 percent increase year over year. Economy.com had this to say: “The same factors that dampened sales in September helped vehicle sales surge in September. New-vehicle sales posted their first year-over-year gain for 2017, fueled in large part by replacement vehicles from Hurricane Harvey. Dealerships were bustling in the south-central region of the country, including Houston, where vehicle sales jumped 14 percent compared with last September, according to JD Power. Even so, sales were somewhat lower for Irma-stricken Florida because the storm hit during September. The resurgence in sales caused by Hurricane Irma will likely carry over into October, but will certainly be smaller. According to the National Insurance Crime Bureau, around 297,000 auto insurance claims had been filed because of Harvey and an additional 128,000 were filed related to Irma.”

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    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.