Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


The other day I mentioned I am open to suggestions regarding subjects to be discussed or possible speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. One of the suggestions I got was that we consider having a steel buyer’s panel. I like the idea and it has already been incorporated into the agenda. I have already gotten a few steel buyers to be on this panel. It will be diverse with manufacturing and steel distribution representatives. I am also looking at companies who cover different industries. This will allow us to get different perspectives than those being provided by our economists or analysts.

John Packard Summit 18I continue to work on the program, and I am still open for suggestions. If you would like to give me your thoughts regarding the 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference (or anything else), you can reach me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com

There do appear to be some “holes” opening up at a couple of mills. I received a note from a steel buyer today pointing out that one of his suppliers has had HRC lead times as being the week of Feb. 10 for the past few weeks. This is something we are trying to watch closely. If you have mill lead time information, please forward to my attention.

We got a note from Lewis Leibowitz today with the modification of a tariffs list, which were products (Chinese) hit with tariffs as of Sept. 1, 2019. The modification is part of the phase one deal with the Chinese. He reminded us that the exclusion deadline for List 4A products remains Jan. 31.

I mentioned the other day that Michael Smerconish of CNN will be our featured keynote speaker on Wednesday. He will be prior to lunch since we have added the “How to Attract and Retain Young People” segments in the afternoon. I decided to bring Smerconish back because he works hard on being fair and as neutral as possible, yet he does have opinions on what will happen and why during this election cycle. He was excellent a few years ago when we first brought him to our conference.

We do have a few sponsorships and exhibition spaces left for this year’s conference. If you would like more information, please contact Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Regarding subscriptions for our newsletters. Prices will be rising come Feb. 1. If you want to renew now, you can do so at the current price levels by contacting Paige Mayhair – 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, President & CEO

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

Final thoughts

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday: