Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 18, 2020
The new normal for me is talking to an industry executive on the phone and listening to the kids playing in the background….
We had a 45-point drop in both the Current and Future SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index this week (article is at top of tonight’s issue). This is the largest one-week change in the history of our index, which goes back to 2008 (see graphic below).
Two weeks ago I could sense the resistance to the virus and its impact on the United States. I received some negative comments on articles SMU was writing about what economists were forecasting and the possibility of a dramatic drop in the economy here in the United States. No one wanted to believe that the U.S. could have issues like what happened in China. This week the resistance has dropped, for several reasons: Automotive shutting down in Europe and the United States. People watching what is happening in Italy, and how closely the U.S. is mimicking the Italian trajectory of cases, which is worse than what happened in China. And the destruction of the stock market losing all of the “Trump bump” since he became president. Those who were resistant are now concerned. Those who were concerned two weeks ago are now anxious. Those who were anxious two weeks ago are now hunkered down in their homes, Face-Timing their parents and kids while trying not to listen to the news….
The problem is there are still many Americans who are in denial. You can see them on the beaches in Florida and elsewhere around the country. It is hard to accept that the world is a different place than it was just a short couple of months back.
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John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final thoughts
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
Final thoughts
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
Final thoughts
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
Final thoughts
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!