CRU Webcast: Global Pandemic Triggers Global Recession

Written by Tim Triplett

The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the ultimate economic cost of this health crisis has fuelled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen joins Doug Hilderhoff, principal analyst for aluminium, and Josh Spoores, principal analyst for steel, for CRU’s latest global outlook, and implications for key commodity markets.

Following are the topics discussed:

CRU’s Global Macro Forecast

Global recession and contraction in world industrial production

China sees a hard landing in 2020, despite a quick return to normality

EU and the USA enter recession

Implication for Steel

Steel sheet demand in the USA to fall 25 percent

Mills quickly cut production and idle mills

Sheet prices may fall back towards lows last seen in 2015

Implications for Aluminum

Massive primary aluminium surplus unavoidable in 2020

LME to average $1,425 in Q2

Ex. China primary aluminium demand to fall >10 percent in 2020

Click here to watch the webinar. Slides for this presentation can be downloaded here.

This webinar was originally recorded on April 2 for CRU subscribers.

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