Steel Markets
Automotive Assemblies Take a Nosedive in March
Written by Tim Triplett
April 24, 2020
Automotive assemblies in North America nosedived in March as vehicle manufacturers shut down their plants to protect their employees from the spread of the coronavirus. Most plants ceased operations in mid-March, so the data does not reflect a full month of shutdowns, thus the effect may be even more pronounced in April.
Data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico shows that sales were down by 58.3 percent in March compared with the prior month. Autos were down by 60.7 percent and light trucks (pickups, SUVs and crossovers) were down by 57.5 percent month over month (Figure 1).
North American Assemblies
North American automakers produced light vehicles at an annual rate of 11.8 million units in March, down from 17.2 million in November. Normally, March increases by an average of 5.6 percent from February due to the usual seasonality, but the rest of this year will be anything but normal.
Figure 4 shows the production in North America on a rolling 12-month basis as the blue line and the year-over-year growth as the brown bars. The current downturn is modest so far, compared with the recession in 2009.
Table 1 is a short-term snapshot of assembly by nation and vehicle type. It breaks down total North American personal and commercial vehicle production into the U.S, Canada and Mexican components and the three- and 12-month growth rates for each. At the far right it shows the momentum for the total and for each of the three nations.
In three months through March, the only sector to have positive growth was commercial vehicles in Mexico. Commercial vehicle production in Canada in the first quarter was zero; clearly this production has moved to Mexico.
Want to Dig Deeper?
Steel Market Update’s automotive trends data dates back to 2007. To explore the rest of the historical data, below, click here:
Figure 2: Import Market Share, U.S. Auto and Light Truck Sales, January 2004-2020
Figure 3: Average Monthly Production 2011-March 2020, Total North American Vehicle Assemblies
Figure 5: Personal Vehicle Production, U.S., Canada, Mexico, January 2007-March 2020
Figure 6: U.S. Personal Vehicle Production, Rolling Three Months and Y/Y Growth Rate, March 2020
Figure 7: Canada, Personal Vehicle Production, Rolling Three Months and Y/Y Growth Rate, March 2020
Figure 8: Mexico Personal Vehicle Production, Rolling Three Months and Y/Y Growth Rate, March 2020
Figure 9: Personal Vehicle Share, U.S., Mexico, Canada, January 2007-March 2020
Figure 10: Commercial Vehicle Production, U.S., Canada, Mexico, January 2007-March 2020
Figure 11: U.S. Commercial Vehicle Production, Rolling Three Months and Y/Y Growth Rate, March 2020
Figure 12: Canada Commercial Vehicle Production, Rolling Three Months, January 2007-March 2020
Figure 13: Mexico Commercial Vehicle Production, Rolling Three Months and Y/Y Growth Rate 2020
Figure 14: Commercial Vehicle Share, U.S., Mexico, Canada, January 2007-March 2020
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in Steel Markets
GrafTech’s Q2 loss widens in ‘challenging’ business environment
GrafTech cited a “challenging” part of the business cycle as its net loss widened in the second quarter.
CRU: Poor steel margins continue to push down raw material prices
Both iron ore and coking coal prices fell this week because of resistance from buyers. Iron ore prices have continued to fall throughout the past week, following sharp declines in steel prices in China, given no new policy announcement from the ‘Third Plenum’ meeting.
Op-Ed: The myth of the Mexican steel surge
We have heard ominous warnings about a flood of Mexican steel threatening the US market. It's the kind of rhetoric that gets thrown around often with little regard for the facts. The reality is that the Mexican steel surge is simply not happening, and the US steel industry has consistently maintained a significant trade surplus in finished products with Mexico. In 2023 alone, this surplus exceeded $3 billion.
CRU: Demand weakness continues to weigh on global sheet markets
Demand has remained persistently weak across the globe for sheet steel, weighing on prices. US HR coil prices fell the furthest this week as high-volume, low-priced deals were transacted as mills looked to fill order books and competed with one another amid relative demand weakness. Meanwhile, European prices were also down due to low demand […]
Influx of coated products fuels recent import surge
Steel imports fell back in May from April’s recent high but remained elevated compared to the levels seen over the past year. A deeper dive into the data confirms what SMU has been hearing from sources: Coated sheet is driving the recent rise in overall import levels.