• Skip to main content

    CRU

    CRU: Fed’s Dovish Song Won’t Soothe the Bond Market

    Written by Anissa Chabib


    By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib and Principal Economist Alex Tuckett

    The Fed’s Jerome Powell has continued to strike a dovish tone, emphasizing that the Fed will continue to support the economy until “substantial progress has been made.” However, he stopped short of any attempt to directly push back against recent rises in bond yields. Furthermore, revisions to the Fed’s forecasts and interest rate projections indicate the difficult decisions to come if the economy rebounds as quickly as many now expect. This will not end the volatility in bond markets.

    Latest in CRU

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.