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    CRU: The Only Way is Up for Carbon Prices

    Written by Frank Eich


    By CRU Economist Frank Eich and CRU Research Analyst Clifton Hoong

    As addressing climate change has become an increasingly urgent political priority, policy makers have been keen to develop the available tool kit to address this challenge. Within that tool kit, carbon pricing plays an important role as it has been identified as one of the most effective ways of reducing greenhouse gas emission levels on the domestic and international level. In some markets, carbon prices have been rising rapidly over the recent past and are forecast to do so for years to come. The commodities markets across the value chain will need to prepare for and adapt to these new prices.

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.