Analysis
March 10, 2022
Final Thoughts
Written by Tim Triplett
“What a difference a war makes.” No disrespect meant to the suffering people of Ukraine, but more than one respondent to SMU’s survey this week noted the big effect the war is having on global steel prices.
Steel sheet had lost nearly 50% of its value in the six months from last September to February. The price for hot rolled coil had nosedived from an all-time high of $1,955 to around $1,000 per ton in a major correction from the pandemic-induced steel shortage last year. Then Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, plunging the global steel market into turmoil as exports of steel, slabs and pig iron from those two countries ceased overnight. The resulting raw material squeeze ignited a turnaround in steel prices unlike any seen before. SMU’s check of the market this week puts the benchmark HRC price at $1,260 per ton, a $260 jump in just two weeks. Which begs the question, how long will this new trend last and how high will steel prices go?
