Prices
August 12, 2022
Written by Greg Wittbecker
Underlying price function stops sliding and may have found basis for strengthening
The London Metal Exchange (LME) may have found a floor to stop the slide it has experienced since April. Topping out near $3,400 metric tons earlier this year, the price of aluminum drifted lower steadily in the second quarter and into the third as the war in Ukraine raged on and energy prices in Europe ran higher.
Ferrous scrap prices rose in October as the market grew firmer, scrap sources said. “Overall, the main drivers of this October were strong US mill demand and order books, an export market that had risen over the course of September but has now pulled back slightly, and the season,” one source told SMU. He said at this time dealers and mills anticipate that scrap flows will begin to slow down moving into the end of the year.
US sheet and plate prices continued to march higher this week as a market squeeze that’s been in place for months now showed no signs of letting up. Market participants, some mostly focused on 2027 contract negotiations, said that it was increasingly difficult to even get a quote for spot tonnage from domestic mills, which firmly retain their grip on pricing power. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price stands at...
Several mills that bought October scrap early last week are still asking for additional supplies, scrap market participants said. The reason: the mills' initial prices did not attract enough of the raw material, they said. A trading source based in northern Ohio said three mills have contacted his firm seeking offers for additional tons. He said the mills asked for offers even if prices were higher than their original buys last week.
Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 12, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,240 per short ton (st) this week, a $10/st increase from a week earlier. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,305/st, up $15/st from the prior week. Nucor is still offering lead times of three to five weeks, according to the letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 6, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,270/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 13.
Steel markets in the United States now feature supply shortages. Spot tons are well-nigh unavailable, and even contract tons are scarce. Based on the available statistics, the US market for flat-rolled products is seriously constrained. The US economy is still the strongest in the world, and manufacturing output remains vigorous. But the available supply is tight. The reason is fairly obvious. US domestic supply has increased a bit. Meanwhile, imports have fallen significantly.