Prices
September 23, 2022
Written by Greg Wittbecker
Aluminum May Be Approaching the End of Its Long Destocking Cycle
Last week, I described our premise about demand versus real consumption. We talked about the market’s natural tendency to destock when prices take a beating as they have during most of 2022.
Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 12, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,240 per short ton (st) this week, a $10/st increase from a week earlier. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,305/st, up $15/st from the prior week. Nucor is still offering lead times of three to five weeks, according to the letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 6, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,270/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 13.
Steel markets in the United States now feature supply shortages. Spot tons are well-nigh unavailable, and even contract tons are scarce. Based on the available statistics, the US market for flat-rolled products is seriously constrained. The US economy is still the strongest in the world, and manufacturing output remains vigorous. But the available supply is tight. The reason is fairly obvious. US domestic supply has increased a bit. Meanwhile, imports have fallen significantly.
Sheet and plate prices continued to move higher on market dynamics that have carried headlines for much of the second half of the year: scarce spot tons, long lead times, production delays, lean inventories, and stable demand.
Ferrous scrap prices appear to be up in October as trading gets underway, according to preliminary reports from market sources. One source said a Detroit-area buyer purchased shredded and plate and structural (P&S) at up $20 per gross ton (gt), with busheling up $10/gt. A second source said shredded and cut grades look like they'll be up $20, but trading hasn't begun in earnest yet as of Tuesday morning.
Nucor's consumer spot price for hot-rolled increased by $10/st w/w on Monday, Oct. 5 to $1,230 per short ton.