Weak Conditions on the Horizon: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Written by Becca Moczygemba

Business activity in the state of New York has recently declined, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey responses collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York between Oct. 3 and Oct. 11.

The survey’s headline general business conditions index dropped to -9.1 for October, maintaining a negative value for the third straight month.

The index plummeted to -31.30 in August, its lowest reading since May 2020. A recovery in September came in better than expected at -1.5, though still not ideal, as any reading below zero denotes deteriorating conditions.

Shipments plunged a staggering 19.9 points to -0.3 despite a small increase in the average number of hours worked per week.

“Delivery times held steady, and inventories inched higher. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and the average workweek. Input price increases picked up, while the pace of selling price increases held steady. Looking ahead, firms do not expect business conditions to improve over the next six months,” the NY Fed said in its monthly survey report.

With weak conditions on the horizon, the indexes for future new orders and shipments remained low at -8.3 for new orders and -14.5 for shipments, respectively. However, employment and capital spending are expected to increase, while delivery times are predicted to shorten significantly.

EmpireStateManuf. Oct

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By Becca Moczygemba,

Becca Moczygemba

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