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    December 21, 2022

    CRU Aluminum: Update on New Aluminum Rolling Capacity, Scrap

    In our column of Nov. 4, we updated you on the progress that Novelis and Steel Dynamics (SDI) were making on executing on their planned two mills. Since that time, nothing has really changed. That perhaps is profound in and of itself, in that we have nothing new to tell you about the status of the Manna Capital Partners/Ball Corp. joint venture.

    Some skeptics are saying the Manna/Ball mill will never be built now in the aftermath of SDI entering the fray. The harshest critics are saying it was all a ploy just to draw in more rolling capacity, and that Ball had no intention of ever building the mill.

    Latest in Market Data

    Metalformers grow more cautious in October

    Metalformers’ economic outlook softened in the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) October Business Conditions Report. Still, the bulk of respondents continued to expect stable conditions. The monthly survey of 80 metalforming companies in the US and Canada provides an economic indicator for manufacturing over the next three months. “While this month’s survey reflects increased caution about the near-term economic outlook, the energy and investment on display at FABTECH this week tell a broader story about our industry’s resilience,” commented Mark Getsay, PMA’s managing director. Participation at the event, Getsay said, “demonstrates metalformers’ continued commitment to investing in new technologies, developing their workforce and strengthening their competitiveness for the future.”

    AIA: Architecture business conditions weaken further in September

    Architecture firms reported weaker business conditions in September, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release from the American Institute of Architects and Deltek. The share of firms reporting declining billings was the largest since May. The September ABI fell two and a half points from August to a four-month low of 44.7. The ABI has been in contraction for all but two months since August 2022, indicating continually weakening business conditions following the post-pandemic rally. The ABI is a typical leading indicator of nonresidential construction activity, leading construction spending by approximately 9–12 months.

    Steel market chatter this week

    The majority of buyers SMU polled this week expect prices to continue rising from here, supported by limited supply. Demand is said to be strong, with most remarking that it is stable to improving. Most say inventories are moving faster this year than last, attributed to tight supply, late mill deliveries, and generally leaner supply chains. Imports continue to appeal to many buyers on both price and availability, but lead times, tariffs, and other risks remain. Buyers are split on whether President Trump’s tariff policies are helping their businesses and whether they’re seeing manufacturing reshoring.

    Sheet and plate price gains accelerate as 2026 tons dry up

    Sheet and plate prices continue to push higher as mills charge a premium for what little spot tonnage remains for 2026, market participants said. SMU’s price assessment for hot-rolled (HR) coil now stands at $1,290 per short ton (st) on average, up $10/st week over week. HR price gains averaged $5/st w/w throughout July and August, with no changes in prices some weeks and gains of at most $15/st w/w. In September and October to date, in contrast, prices have increased every week—with the average gain at $11.25/st w/w and w/w gains as high as $20/st. Prices for cold-rolled and coated products continued to increase as well. SMU's price assessment for cold-rolled (CR) coil clocked in at...