Market Data
October 3, 2023
Written by David Schollaert
Steel prices continued to decline last month – a trend we’ve seen repeated since mid-April. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices ended September at $645 per ton ($32.25 per cwt) on average, having fallen by $80 per ton during the month.
The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products remained pointing Lower due to waning tags that have resulted largely from declining demand.
Lead times for sheet and plate continued to extend amid a domestic supply squeeze, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times stretch into mid- or late December, and those at some mills now extend into 2027. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-covid demand snapback in 2021. Lead times for plate are now even higher than their 2021 peak.
The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.
US service centers’ flat-rolled steel supply increased marginally in September, gaining ground for only the second time all year. Shipping days of supply rose to 45.9 last month, according to SMU data. That figure marks a 3.7% increase from August. September’s result represents a modest gain after inventories hit a five-year low the previous month. But it’s nearly 16% below September 2025 levels. Sheet inventories have averaged ~45 shipping days of supply over the past six months. Flat-rolled inventories represented 2.18 months of supply in September, up 3.7% from August. However, the figure was 15.5% below September 2025. The month-on-month (m/m) gain in inventories resulted from a boost (+21.2%) in intake that was partially offset by a 5% increase in shipments.
Manufacturing activity in New York State expanded sharply in October, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. New orders, shipments, and unfilled orders rose, while delivery times lengthened and supply availability deteriorated further. The survey’s headline general business conditions index rose 18 points from September to 25.5 in October, the highest reading since December 2021. The new orders index climbed 21 points to 23.2, while shipments increased 16 points to 13.1. Unfilled orders also rose, with the index up eight points to 14.0. The delivery-times index reached 19.8, indicating significantly longer lead times.
US sheet and plate prices continued to march higher this week as a market squeeze that’s been in place for months now showed no signs of letting up. Market participants, some mostly focused on 2027 contract negotiations, said that it was increasingly difficult to even get a quote for spot tonnage from domestic mills, which firmly retain their grip on pricing power. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price stands at...