SMU Data and Models

SMU's May at a glance
Written by David Schollaert
June 13, 2024
SMU’s monthly at-a-glance articles summarize important steel market metrics for the prior month. This May report contains data updated through June 7.
Steel prices for sheet and plate products continued to edge lower throughout May. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted from neutral to lower at the beginning of the month.
We saw a decline in Steel Buyers’ Sentiment, with the index falling to its lowest reading since August 2020. Steel mill lead times continued to hover right around five weeks throughout May, while the percentage of buyers reporting that mills were willing to talk price increased to 82% on average last month.
Raw materials prices were largely flat at the beginning of the month before eroding toward the month’s end. Scrap prices were down from April to May, except for busheling, which was flat. Zinc and aluminum prices strengthened throughout the month.
We also saw a mixed bag of economic indicators. Employment figures rebounded after a poor showing in April. While edging up, the AIA Billings Index remained in contraction territory. Construction spending flattened out but has been strong historically overall. Steel trade has increased, with imports and exports both near multi-month highs.
See the chart below for other key metrics for May. Note our new ‘trend’ column showing mini-graphs for each item (click here to expand).


David Schollaert
Read more from David SchollaertLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.

Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.

SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices log declines
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.