OEMs

HVAC shipments slip in September but are still trending higher

November 12, 2024

Following a strong August, heating and cooling equipment shipments eased in September to a five-month low, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

Total September shipments declined 9% month-on-month (m/m) to 1.88 million units, the lowest monthly rate since April (Figure 1, left). Recall that August shipments of 2.07 million units were at the second-highest rate of the past two years. Despite the m/m decline, September shipments were still 4% higher than last year.

Trends

To smooth out seasonal fluctuations and highlight long-term trends, we can calculate monthly shipment data using a 12-month moving average (12MMA). This method shows that shipments have trended higher for the last four months (Figure 1, right). This upward trend comes after a significant decline that followed the post-Covid surge. September’s 12MMA now stands at a one-year high of 1.81 million units.

September shipments by product

Water heaters: Shipments slipped 16% m/m to a 14-month low of 673,000 units. Recall the two-year high of 887,000 units seen back in March. September shipments were 11% lower year over year (y/y).
Warm air furnaces: Shipments ticked 4% higher m/m to a 23-month high of 306,000 units. This was 6% greater shipments a year earlier.
Air conditioners and heat pumps: Shipments declined 7% m/m to a total of 904,000 units. Still, total air conditioner and heat pump shipments were 18% greater than the same month one year prior. Note that air conditioner/heat pump shipments are very seasonal, with slowdowns experienced throughout the winter months, as shown in Figure 2.

An interactive history of heating and cooling equipment shipment data is available here on our website. If you need assistance logging in to or navigating the website, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.