Analysis
December 22, 2024
Written by David Schollaert
And just like that, we’re wrapping up the last SMU newsletter of 2024. We’re closing out our 19th year and looking with wide-eyed anticipation to what 2025 will bring.
The end of the year is often both a time for reflection, and for looking ahead – not just individually, but collectively across the flat-rolled steel market. So, before we go, here are some parting thoughts and a bid farewell with 2024’s final Final Thoughts.
Steel markets in the United States now feature supply shortages. Spot tons are well-nigh unavailable, and even contract tons are scarce. Based on the available statistics, the US market for flat-rolled products is seriously constrained. The US economy is still the strongest in the world, and manufacturing output remains vigorous. But the available supply is tight. The reason is fairly obvious. US domestic supply has increased a bit. Meanwhile, imports have fallen significantly.
Earlier this week, several steelmakers entered the market with prices for shredded, plate and structural (P&S), and heavy melting steel (HMS) up $20 per gross ton (gt) from September. Prices on prime grades were initially missing but were then reported as up only $10. This occurred in select regions, mainly in the northern tier. As the week went on, expectations were that the rest of the market would follow suit. But this has not been the case.
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys
The Department of Commerce is adjusting the countervailing duties (CVDs) on imports of hot-rolled steel flat products from two South Korean producers. The agency released the final results of its administrative review for calendar year 2023, finding a lower rate for Hyundai but a higher rate for POSCO. Tariff and trade issues have led South Korea to overtake Canada this year as the largest foreign supplier of HR.
Steel imports into the US crept higher in August and continued climbing in September, according to the Department of Commerce's latest import license data. August imports rose 3.4% from July to a 15-month high. September license data collected through Oct. 5 shows another 6.2% month-on-month increase. Imports continue to recover from some of the lowest levels since 2020, seen late last year through February this year.