SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Most mills still willing to talk price

Written by Brett Linton

January 23, 2025

The majority of steel buyers we surveyed this week continue to report mills are willing to negotiate prices on new spot orders, though not as much as they were in early-January.  

Every other week, SMU polls hundreds of service center and manufacturer buyers asking if domestic mills are open to negotiation on new spot order prices. This week, seven out of every 10 buyers reported that mills would talk price to secure a new order (Figure 1). This rate is lower compared to the 80%+ rates we had seen for the previous three months, now similar to those seen in September 2024.

Negotiation rates by product

Negotiation rates were stronger on coated and plate products this week vs. hot rolled and cold rolled (Figure 2). The most significant changes observed from our previous survey were in hot-rolled and cold-rolled rates. Negotiation rates by product this week are:

  • Hot rolled: 70%, down 18 percentage points from Jan. 22, and the lowest rate observed since last September.
  • Cold rolled: 60%, down 15 percentage points to the lowest rate seen in 10 months.
  • Galvanized: 86%, down four percentage points.
  • Galvalume: 88%, up three percentage points to the highest rate since November.
  • Plate: 82%, down 8 percentage points to the lowest rate witnessed since last October.

Here’s what some survey respondents had to say:

“Some mills will negotiate, some will not.”

“Less willing [on hot rolled] than last week.”

“Negotiable [on cold rolled], although much tighter.”

“Negotiable on plate with tons.”

“Tonnage will still offer some discount [on hot rolled].”

“Depends on how much [hot rolled] you’re buying.”

Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Visit our website to see an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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