Sheet
April 11, 2025
Written by David Schollaert
US cold-rolled (CR) coil prices declined this week, slipping for the first time since early February. Most offshore markets deviated, moving higher this week.
As a result, the US premium over imports on a landed basis widened. The move was helped by a tighter gap since the re-emergence of Section 232 on March 12.
Buyers in SMU’s latest Flat-Rolled Steel Survey increasingly expect hot-rolled (HR) coil prices to keep climbing into year-end and beyond. But competitive import offers have not yet eased concerns about tight availability: most surveyed manufacturers and service centers said foreign suppliers were quoting competitive prices, while many service centers said they were still buying imports to secure additional tons. As of Tuesday, Oct. 27, current spot prices for HR coil range from $1,280 per short ton (st) to $1,330/st, averaging $1,305/st, according to SMU’s market survey. Looking two months ahead, 41% of respondents to our Oct. 28 survey expected HR coil prices to be $1,300-1,349 per short ton (st) in two months, down from 47% in our survey two weeks earlier.
Nucor said on Monday, Nov. 2, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,280 per short ton (st) this week, up $10/st from last week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,350/st, also up $10/st from a week earlier. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 27, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,305/st, up $15/st from the previous week.
In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.
The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.