Most steelmaking raw material prices hold firm

Pig iron, shredded scrap, busheling scrap, and zinc prices all held relatively steady across the last month, while iron ore and coking coal increased 2-10% m/m and aluminum declined 2%. Currently, four of the seven materials are priced lower than they were three months ago, while most prices are more expensive today compared to this time last year.

Table 1 shows the latest prices for each product and their changes from recent months.

Iron ore

The import price of 62% Fe Chinese iron ore fines had trended lower from February through June, falling to an eight-month low of $94 per dry metric ton (dmt) delivered North China in late June. That trend broke at the start of July, with prices recovering 10% m/m to a four-month high of $103 as of July 28 (Figure 1). Iron ore is 4% more expensive than it was three months ago and 2% higher than this time last year.

Coking coal

Premium hard coking coal prices have overall trended downward since mid-2023, recently reaching a near four-year low of $168/dmt in March. Prices marginally recovered in April and May, but slid back down in June and held stable across July at $177/dmt (Figure 2). Coking coal is 7% less expensive than it was three months ago and is 20% cheaper than prices seen one year ago.

Pig iron

After falling to a four-year low of $415/dmt earlier this year, pig iron prices briefly rebounded in March through May. In June, we saw prices tumble back down to $416/dmt and they remained there through July (Figure 3).  Pig iron is 11% cheaper than it was three months ago and 10% lower than July 2024 levels.

Recall that pig iron prices soared to a historic high of $975/dmt in June 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. Most of the pig iron imported to the US was imported from Russia, Ukraine, and Brazil. This report uses Brazilian prices (now the primary source of US pig iron imports), averaging prices from the country’s northern and southern ports.

Scrap

Steel scrap prices have remained flat since falling in April and May. SMU’s July scrap prices held at $380 per gross ton (gt) for shredded and $425/gt for busheling (Figure 4). Scrap prices are 7-10% lower than they were three months ago. Compared to this time last year, busheling scrap prices are 13% higher today, while shredded scrap is up just 1%.

Fluctuations in scrap and iron ore prices provide insight into the competitiveness of integrated (blast furnace) mills, whose primary feedstock is iron ore, vs. mini-mills (electric-arc furnace), whose primary feedstock is scrap. Figure 5 compares the prices of these two mill raw materials.

To compare these two mill feedstocks, SMU divides the shredded scrap price by the iron ore price to calculate a ratio. A higher ratio favors integrated mills, a lower ratio favors mini-mill producers.

Over the past three years, integrated mills generally held the cost advantage up until the middle of 2023, then it shifted to mini-mill producers through early 2024. In late 2024 we saw favor shift back to integrated mills, a power they held through the first few months of this year. Since peaking in March at 4.50, the ratio has trended lower, standing at a neutral 3.70 as of July 29.

Zinc and aluminum

Zinc and aluminum are used in some coated steel products. Fluctuations in spot prices can prompt steel mills to adjust their galvanized and Galvalume coating extras.

After falling sharply in late March, zinc prices have recovered in the past four months. In July, prices climbed as high as $1.30 per pound, easing to $1.23 per pound as of August 1, unchanged m/m. The latest LME zinc cash price is 5% higher than three months ago and 3% above levels from one year earlier (Figure 7).

Aluminum price movements have mostly mirrored those of zinc since February. The latest LME cash price is $1.15/lb as of Aug. 1, down 2% from the start of July. Aluminum prices are 7% more expensive than they were three months ago and 14% higher than July 2024 levels. Note that aluminum spot prices can be volatile, though sharp swings typically correct within a few days, as illustrated once in Figure 7.