Spread between US HRC and imports widens on S232

This week, US hot band is roughly 14% cheaper than imports on a landed basis, up from 11.4% the previous week.

Recall that President Trump implemented across-the-board S232 tariffs of 25% on March 12. He then doubled the S232 tariff to 50% on June 4. The price gap between US prices and those abroad was directly impacted as a result, further insulating stateside products (see Figure 1).

Note, too, that before March 12, allies such as Japan and the EU had not been subject to the S232 tariff. Instead, they had tariff-rate quotas, which allowed them to ship certain volumes to the US with no tariff. That dynamic has shifted trade flows.

By the numbers

SMU’s average domestic HR coil price declined $15 this week to $805 per short ton (st), down $75/st over the past seven weeks.

HR imports from Germany and Italy, on a landed basis, are much more expensive than US hot band. But HR prices from some Asian nations remain somewhat competitive, in theory, even with the 50% tariff.

In dollar-per-ton terms, US product (inclusive of tariffs) is on average $112/st less than imports.

The charts below compare HR prices in the US, Germany, Italy, and Asia. The left side highlights prices over the last two years. The right side zooms in to show more recent trends.

Methodology

SMU calculates the theoretical spread between domestic (FOB mill) and foreign (delivered to US ports) HR coil prices. We do this by comparing our weekly US HR assessment to CRU’s weekly HR indices for Germany, Italy, and Southeast Asian ports. This calculation is purely theoretical. Actual import costs can vary significantly and affect the true market spread.

To estimate the CIF price at US ports, we add a $90/st charge to all foreign prices to account for freight, handling, and trader margins, along with the 50% blanket tariff. This $90/st figure serves as a general benchmark. Buyers should adjust it based on their specific shipping and handling expenses.

If you import steel and have insights on these costs, we’d love to hear from you. Contact the author at david@steelmarketupdate.com.

Asian HRC (Southeast Asian ports)

As of Wednesday, Aug. 20, the CRU Asian HRC price was $457/st, down $1/st from the week before. Adding a 50% tariff and $90/st in estimated import costs, the delivered price of Asian hot band to the US is ~$776/st. As noted above, the latest SMU US HR price is $805/st on average.

The result: Prices for US-produced HR are theoretically $29/st higher than steel imported from Asia. That said, it’s a complete shift from the highs seen in 2023, when stateside tags were ~$300/st more expensive than Asian product.

Italian HRC

Italian HR prices edged down $1/st this week to $571/st, but are still about flat over the past four weeks, according to CRU. After accounting for 50% S232 tariffs and adding $90/st in estimated import costs, the delivered price of Italian HR is, in theory, $946/st.

That means domestic HR coil is theoretically $141/st cheaper than imports from Italy. Without the 50% tariff, US prices, in theory, would be $144/st above Italian imports.

German HRC

CRU’s German HR price was up $11/st to $627/st this week. After adding a 50% tariff and $90/st in import costs, the delivered price of German HR coil is, in theory, $1,030/st.

The result: Domestic HR is theoretically $225/st cheaper than HR imported from Germany.

US hot band was $207/st more expensive than German HR as recently as March, the widest spread in 14 months. Without the 50% tariff, US prices would, in theory, be $145/st above German imports.

Editor’s note

Freight is important when deciding whether to import foreign steel or buy from a domestic mill. Domestic prices are referenced as FOB the producing mill. Foreign prices are CIF, the port (Houston, NOLA, Savannah, Los Angeles, Camden, etc.). Inland freight, from either a domestic mill or from the port, can dramatically impact the competitiveness of both domestic and foreign steel. It’s also important to factor in lead times. In most markets, domestic steel will deliver more quickly than foreign steel. On March 12, 2025, undiluted Section 232 tariffs were reinstated on steel. All steel imports and many derivative products faced a 25% tariff. Effective June 4, 2025, Section 232 tariffs were increased to 50%. We do not include any antidumping (AD) or countervailing duties (CVD) in this analysis.