Final Thoughts

An article in Politico reported on Friday that steel talks have restarted between the two nations ahead of President Trump’s visit to the UK next week. The article said there’s a hope that Great Britain will receive some kind of quota deal, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Since the writing of Leibowitz’s article, the very idea of a “template” seems an anachronism. We’ve seen a hodge-podge of deals with no clear pattern. Also, of utmost global importance, the can got kicked down the road on an agreement with China. (For the latest in North America, check out Laura Miller’s article on Mexico here.)

My last Final Thoughts detailed the prospect of an upcoming BRICS virtual meeting. Would those nations band together as a counterweight to US hegemony? Not according to the South China Morning Post, whose headline after the Summit was BRICS virtual rally falters as members appear leery of exacerbating US trade war.

The poker game goes on, the stakes continue to rise, and we are all left waiting to see if some kind of breakthrough will push the trade landscape into a different direction.

I would call it a standoff, but that wouldn’t be accurate. A lot of things are happening. Rather, it’s just not clear to say some kind of unified pattern has emerged, at least not from where I’m sitting.

ORAC says

With all the talk of AI at Steel Summit 2025, we decided to put our money where our mouth is. We loaded all the conference discussions into SMU parent company CRU’s proprietary AI, ORAC. I asked it to give a short, five-bullet point summary of the most important trade issues talked about by speakers. Here’s the list:

• Section 232 reset: tariffs increased to 50% and broadened to downstream derivatives.
• Global overcapacity: China’s exports cited as overwhelming markets (118 million metric ton figure).
• Policy uncertainty: ad‑hoc reciprocal tariffs complicate investment planning; calls to codify.
• Circumvention & USMCA review: pressure to tighten rules of origin and stop transshipment.
• Tariffs vs. quotas and cost impact: traders push quotas; panels warned of inflation and disruption.

These are exactly the kinds of issues we’ve been writing about for the last few months, and they seem top of mind for our readers as well as worthy of discussion on the Summit stage.

When I asked ORAC, using the presentations, what issue steel market participants would want the most clarity on by Jan. 1, 2026, one issue leapt out: Legal certainty on Section 232’s scope and permanence.

Of course, it’s not a surprise, but it’s good to see our concerns are borne out by the AI analysis. I think one of the most salient points is from Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) President Philip K. Bell during the trade panel at Summit: “The president is using tariff policy in some very unique ways.” With so much disagreement out there on trade policy, I think that’s one thing no one can dispute.

AMU webinar

To find out what’s happening on the nonferrous side of the fence, please sign up for a webinar hosted by SMU sister publication Aluminum Market Update (AMU). Join AMU experts Greg Wittbecker and Nicholas Bell on Thursday, Sept. 25, at 11 a.m. ET as they explore what lies ahead for physical aluminum premiums and recycled metals tolling in 2026. You can register for free here.