SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment recovers to 12-week high, future outlook slips

Every other week, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and three to six months down the road. Their responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since our inception.

Current Sentiment 

The Current Sentiment Index recovered eight points this week to +38 (Figure 1). Recall that just four weeks ago it had fallen to a five-year low of +28. Sentiment remains muted in comparison to last year. It has consistently matched or fell short of year-ago levels in every survey since March. Sentiment has averaged +42 across the first nine months of the year, down 10 points from the same period of 2024. This time last year it was marginally higher at +41.

Future Sentiment

Future Sentiment slipped this week after increasing each of our last three surveys, declining two points to +50 (Figure 2). Future Sentiment readings have also remained at or below 2024 levels since March. It has averaged +55 so far this year, down from +64 in the first nine months of 2024. This time last year it was +60.

What respondents are saying:

“We seem to have low overhead and buy well.”

“Good, there is more stability to come.”

“The unknown is scary, of course, and we think weak demand will continue even with a few rate cuts coming up.”

“Tariffs are distorting true market and will push the US into recession.”

Sentiment trends

Sentiment indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term swings.

The Current Sentiment 3MMA eased a fraction of a point this week to +32.71, now down to the lowest measure recorded in over five years (Figure 3, left). Back in April the 3MMA had reached a nine-month high of +53.97 after trending upwards since the beginning of the year.

The Future Sentiment 3MMA broke its three-survey gain streak this week, easing half a point to +51.74. While down, this remains one of the higher rates seen over the past three months. Compare this to the near-five-year low of +50.11 recorded back in June 3MMA (Figure 3, right).

About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index

The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.