Final Thoughts

So maybe the best thing I can offer is a range of opinions on what might be next for the domestic steel market.

For starters, those who think the market is at or near a bottom have some facts on their side. Imports have declined in the wake of Section 232 tariffs doubling to 50%. Inventories have steadily declined as buyers – amid tariff and economic uncertainty – have bought mostly hand-to-mouth. Meanwhile, fall maintenance outages and Algoma leaving the US market have squeezed supplies. Such factors help explain why HR lead times at nearly all US mills are now into November.

And it’s not just those factors. We’ve heard from some of you, for example, that Nucor is shipping more substrate from its sheet mills to its California Steel Industries (CSI) joint venture on the West Coast. You could think of it almost as an export.

Then you figure the Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker sells much of its material on a contract basis and can also send steel to its extensive downstream operations. You can see why the company might not have tons of spot volume to offer.

I know some of you think Nucor’s consumer spot price (CSP) is more aspirational than real. And, at this juncture, I tend to agree. But if the market tightens, maybe that aspirational number starts to look more like a real one again?

I mean, sure, spot demand might be lackluster now. But let’s say everyone jumps back into the market to restock at the same time – as sometimes happens in steel. And let’s say there are clear signs of demand improving as lead times get closer to 2026. What happens then?

Let’s talk round numbers. Let’s say HR prices are around $800/st now. Could we see them increase by ~$100/st to ~$900/st by year’s end? I know some of you think that they could.

But not everyone is so bullish.

Others think we could see the market firm up, but then loosen again once fall outages are behind us. And they’re not convinced there is much upside to demand, especially amid what to date remains a quiet spot market.

They might also add that you can now add government-shutdown uncertainty to a growing list of issues on which more clarity might help–whether that’s jobs data (which isn’t being released due to the shutdown) or tariffs. Case in point: Is the US making a deal with Canada, or isn’t it? Would any such deal involve the lowering of Section 232 tariffs? Or is a lowering of the tariff wall on steel a non-starter?

A lot depends on which region or product line you’re in as well. As we noted in the article accompanying our updated prices, HR looks like it’s in a better position than galv. For example, while domestic mills are into November for HR, we know certain facilities still have galvanized product available for late October.

Maybe that shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. We’ve written a lot about developments at Algoma. The Canadian flat-rolled steelmaker produces HR, CR, and plate. But it doesn’t make galv. So when it left the US market, supply tightened to some extent for those products – but not much change for galv.

Selfishly, I hope that the market improves. There is no shortage of news when it comes to politics these days. But when it comes to steel, it feels a lot like last year–when we spent most of Q4 bouncing around the bottom amid waves of election-year headlines.

If I could change something, it’d be this: Political news would get more boring. And news about steel prices and steel demand would get a little more exciting.