Analysis
April 14, 2026
Heating and cooling equipment shipments rebound in February
Written by David Schollaert
Heating and cooling equipment shipments recovered in February, surging 17% from January, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).
This marks the best shipment rate since August, and a notable recovery after shipments tumbled to one of the lowest totals recorded in nearly a decade the prior month. It’s a positive sign, given that historically, shipments are strongest in the early summer months and weakest around the turn of the year, primarily due to seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes.
February shipments totaled 1.63 million units, but were still 5% lower than the same month last year (Figure 1, left). Shipments of water heaters, warm-air furnaces, and air conditioners/heat pump shipments all rose month over month (m/m).
Shipments can be annualized using a 12-month moving average (12MMA) to smooth out seasonality. On this basis, shipments have trended lower since last May, following their two-year peak of 1.89 million units. Through January, the 12MMA is down to a five-and-a-half-year low of 1.68 million units (Figure 1, right).
Shipments by product
- After a sharp decline in January, shipments of water heaters rose 2% m/m in February to 741,000 units, but were down 10% year over year (y/y).
- Warm-air furnace shipments rose 12% to 247,000 units after dipping to a near two-year low in January. Still, shipments were down 6% y/y.
- Shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps surged 45% m/m to 639,000 units, and were up for the third straight month. Recall that three months prior, shipments fell to a 10-year low of 379,000 units. February shipments are up 0.4% y/y, marking the first month of annual growth since April 2025. Note that these shipments are highly seasonal, as shown in Figure 2.
Annual comparisons
The annual growth rate of shipments by product on a 12MMA basis is shown in Figure 3. From this angle, annualized warm-air furnace shipments and water heater shipments are down marginally, while air conditioners/heat pumps shipments are down considerably:
- Water heater shipments briefly saw an annual gain in December but have turned back negative to start the year, down roughly 0.5% y/y. Overall, this rate has steadily trended lower since peaking in mid‑2024.
- Annual warm-air furnace shipments had seen gains on a 12MMA basis since November 2025, though at a slowing pace. February marked the first negative reading on an annual basis, down 1.2% y/y.
- Annualized air conditioner and heat pump shipments were down 23% y/y, the sixth consecutive month with negative annual growth and the largest annual contraction rate in our 16-year data history.
