Analysis
May 19, 2026
SMU Survey: Steel buyers report mixed signals on import demand
Written by Laura Miller
Trading-company sentiment in the May 15 SMU flat-rolled steel buyers survey shows a market split between anecdotal optimism and numerical decline.
Several traders described demand as improving: “More and more customers want alternative supply options,” said one. “Demand intact,” reported another. “Building slowly,” said a third. The survey shows 83% of trading companies report an increase in orders and 17% report a decrease (slide 55 below). That compares to 80% and 20%, respectively, in our previous survey.
Foreign steel remains only selectively attractive to US buyers, according to the surveyed traders. Two-thirds (67%) said foreign products are attractive, while a third (33%) said they are not (slide 56). Comments highlight the divide: some traders see opportunities as US prices firm, while others say anti-dumping and countervailing duties and tariffs continue to limit competitiveness. Several respondents also noted many customers still prefer steel melted and poured in the US.
Pricing competitiveness varies sharply by product. On hot rolled, 60% of traders reported being able to offer attractive hot-rolled coil pricing. But that’s down from 75% in our previous survey. One trader described the shift to ‘yes’ as modest, saying, “Not a dramatic development, but we see the first opportunities.”
Forward buying remains muted. A majority of manufacturers (70%) and service centers (75%) said they are not placing new import orders for future delivery (slide 50). Lead times were a key risk factor, with one service center noting that foreign lead times now extend “past when the domestic market should peak. Too much risk…” Another said imports only make sense “to some extent” given customer preference for domestic melt.
Foreign mills are mostly offering competitive prices. Manufacturers reported 86% ‘yes’ when asked if foreign suppliers were quoting competitive prices, while only 38% of service centers said the same (slide 51). One respondent summarized the situation as “high [prices], but competitive.”
Trading companies’ outlook sentiment remains cautious. One trader described current business prospects as “poor,” citing tariffs and pressures from US mills. Another called conditions merely “fair” due to their reliance on imported steel. The three-to-six-month outlook showed similar uncertainty, with trading companies again warning that success will be difficult without changes to trade laws.
Tariff policy continues to weigh on import-dependent companies. Trading companies were clear that President Trump’s tariff measures are not helping their business. One trader said the policies are “hurting imports and hurting manufacturers here with higher costs.” Even a toll processor noted the tariffs are hurting his business due to the lack of imports.
