Prices
June 26, 2026
Sheet buyers say high prices, tight supplies could invite imports
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Sources in the hot-rolled (HR) coil market reported a range of perceptions on spot price trajectory in the near term.
Some buyers tell SMU they want imports. These buyers contend that surviving a tight market like this one comes down to having products. And if they can’t get product from US mills, they’ll turn to producers abroad.
Another camp posits that mills are too savvy to increase spot prices by very much. They think mills will keep prices rangebound even as lead times continue to exceed norms – something that should keep customers from turning to imports.
Still others predict that mills will increase prices significantly while they have the power to do so, even if it risks alienating some customers.
Market Commentary
A source with a mid-sized Midwestern service center finds demand conditions this week on par with those of prior weeks. “This week was mostly a a carbon copy of last week. Not too good, not too bad,” he said.
But there might be one change. “Domestic mills now are looking over their shoulders, and foreign mills are counting their blessings,” he added.” Domestic mills brought prices up too high when they couldn’t fulfil the orders.”
A super center source said agreed. He said his company had purchased a large volume of HR from a domestic source at the higher end of SMU’s price range. “The transaction illustrates the strength of mills and their willingness to risk turning appetites onto imports,” he said.
A source from another service center in the Midwest shared a slightly different view. He said he expects continued modest price increases from domestic mills rather than big price hikes. He thinks what will trigger import buys is not high prices but instead mills limiting customers to minimum contract volumes.
Meanwhile, a mill source reported stable production, strong demand, and consistent spot orders. “We continue to see very good order book positions and that slow move higher in spot prices,” he said.
“Our spot lead times are all into September at all plants as of now. We want to be able to sell our September spot at prices competitive with the market,” he added.
Prices
SMU’s weekly price assessment tagged spot market HR transactions from $1,120 per short ton (st) to $1,170/st with an average price $1,145/st. All prices are FOB mill.
