Final Thoughts: The search for steel

If you’re a Seinfeld fan, you probably remember the classic episode about “The Soup Nazi.” I think there might be some parallels between that clip and the tone of 2027 contract negotiations between domestic mills and steel buyers.

SMU’s latest steel market survey is out, and it paints a picture of a market we’re all familiar with now: long lead times, mills firmly in control of pricing, and an expectation that US sheet prices will remain stronger for longer, despite increased interest in imports.

With the recent surge in steel prices and the increased melt rate, the price of ferrous scrap has only marginally improved.

The rally in steel sheet prices is officially a year old. We haven’t seen a yearlong price rally since 2021, when a snapback in demand following the early days of the pandemic resulted in one of the biggest steel market booms since World War II.

If the question is, “Brother, can you spare a spot ton?” The answer from many mills might be “No.” Or perhaps, in the case of hot-rolled (HR) coil, “Do you have $1,300 per ton?”