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    Final Thoughts

    Final Thoughts: The search for steel

    Written by Michael Cowden


    It’s tough to find a new angle to write about in a market that continues to be characterized by the same trends. You know the ones: extremely limited spot tons, long lead times, low inventories, and high prices.

    What does that look like in practice? Here is one example. Ever try to buy spot tons at Nucor’s CSP right after it’s announced on Monday, and at a three- to five-week lead time? I’m not going to say it’s impossible. But it’s not exactly obvious how to do so either.

    Michael Cowden

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    Final Thoughts: Longer waits, higher stakes

    We’re in rarefied air for the US domestic steel industry. Mill lead times are approaching or even exceeding (in the case of plate) records set in 2021. Prices, meanwhile, are on an epic run—13 months and counting. Availability, not price, is the largest hurdle buyers are facing. And market participants think the shortage could stay around for a while. Incoming imports and mills catching up after fall maintenance could ease the squeeze. Even so, most sources do not expect meaningful relief until 2027.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.