Price negotiations have tightened up noticeably as the mills seek to collect the $40 price increase they announced last week. Significantly more of the service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are holding the line on prices, especially for hot rolled and galvanized. In the hot […]
Last week’s price hike by the mills did little to change the outlook of most steel buyers. The majority (52 percent) of those responding to Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week still believe prices will remain the same, despite the latest $40 increase announced by the mills on Feb. 27. Another […]
The construction industry’s unemployment rate hit a new February low of 5.5 percent, according to an analysis of new government data by the Associated General Contractors of America. Construction employment increased by 42,000 jobs in February and by 223,000, or 3.0 percent, over the past 12 months. AGC officials said some of the gains were […]
Nonresidential construction planning slowed in February, according to the latest report from Dodge Data & Analytics. The Dodge Momentum Index moved 1.8 percent lower to 148.7 from the revised January reading of 151.4. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of initial reports for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead […]
We get all kinds of reactions to articles we publish. However, I was a bit surprised when one of our readers sent a note regarding our coverage of IHS Markit’s forecast of the impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy. The note said, “Article on coronavirus was despicable. Let’s just start a panic.” Usually, […]
February was a good month for auto sales, with automakers posting higher sales as buyers took advantage of incentives and President’s Day discounts. Toyota sales moved up 12 percent to 194,152 units, while Honda sales gained 4.2 percent. Hyundai sales were driven by consumer enthusiasm for crossover vehicles, gaining 15.8 percent for the month. Most […]
Over the past two days Tim Triplett and I have been participating in the FMA Annual Meeting in San Antonio, Texas. The mood of the steel buyers I met with was moderately negative when it came to the ability of the steel mills to collect the price increases announced. One very large service center buyer […]
Construction spending increased 1.8 percent to $1.369 trillion in January, according to a new analysis of federal data by the Associated General Contractors of America. “Public spending on infrastructure, along with single-family housing, was exceptionally robust in January,” said Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist. “While overall economic conditions remain favorable, future construction spending levels […]
U.S. Steel continues to make interesting moves having now purchased the balance of the ownership in USS/Posco (UPI), 49.9 percent of Big River Steel with an option to purchase the balance, the $1 billion+ capital investment in the endless casting, rolling and cogeneration at Mon Valley Works and the $750 billion investment in Gary Works. […]
John Packard is traveling… The mills announced another $40 increase in flat rolled prices this week in the hopes of reversing the recent downturn in steel prices. Instead of an increase, ArcelorMittal released minimum base prices of $620 for hot rolled and $820 for cold rolled and coated. Steel Market Update puts the current benchmark […]
Steel Market Update raised its Flat Rolled Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral yesterday from Lower in anticipation of a price hike believed imminent from the mills. As expected, Nucor and U.S. Steel both announced increases today of $40 per net ton on all new spot orders of hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized steel, effective […]
Steel Market Update is revising our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled to Neutral from Lower. Sometimes you need a bit of a prod in order to see things clearly. We’ve had many conversations and reviews of the spot pricing data and came to the conclusion the timing of our move to Lower was incorrect. […]
Sales of new homes in January jumped 7.9 percent from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 764,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales were 18.6 percent higher than the January 2019 estimate. “The January sales pace matches what builders are saying in NAHB surveys – […]
On Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2020, one of the most important people in the development of my career in the steel industry and in my personal life passed away—Earl Goode. Earl the Pearl. I met Earl Goode for the first time 38 years ago in Marietta, Ga. It was a beautiful spring day in May 1982. […]
Key Market Indicators show that the improvement in market trends in December and January translated to a jump in the present situation in February. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. In it we summarize 36 data streams that describe […]
This report is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles less than 6.0 tonnes gross vehicle weight rating, heavy trucks and buses are not included). In this report we will briefly describe light […]
Heavy equipment manufacturer John Deere sees early signs of improvement in the U.S. agriculture sector, following the passage of USMCA and the Phase 1 trade agreement with China. “U.S. farm cash receipts are expected to increase in 2020, aided in part by the recently announced third tranche of market facilitation payments, which totaled $3.6 billion, […]
Home prices, as reported by S&P Dow Jones, rose at a modest rate in December 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. Census divisions, reported a 3.8 percent annual gain in December, up from 3.5 percent in November. S&P Dow Jones noted that following a period of […]
We have adjusted our plate price momentum indicator from neutral to lower. Prices have been dropping over the past couple of weeks, and steel buyers are very negative on the markets right now (see some of the comments in an article above). I have to tell you I am really struggling with all of the […]
Based on the results from the flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis Steel Market Update conducted this past week, along with new steel price discussions SMU had with steel buyers late last week, we have decided to move our flat rolled (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume) price Momentum Indicators to Lower […]
Steel buyers sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has remained relatively steady at a fairly optimistic level since the beginning of the year. But both Current and Future Sentiment have registered a very slight decline in the past few weeks. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index registered +56 this week, down from +63 at this time […]
Existing-home sales started the year strong at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.46 million in January. Sales slipped 1.3 percent from December, but were up 9.6 percent from a year ago. “The trend line for housing starts is increasing and showing steady improvement, which should ultimately lead to more home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, chief […]
Architecture firms reported an increase in business in January. The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index rose to 52.2 last month, compared to a revised score of 52.1 in December. New project inquiries and new design contracts for nonresidential construction posted scores of 57.9 and 56.0, respectively. “Despite the continued presence of volatility in […]
Earlier today I moved our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. I explained my reasoning in an article in tonight’s issue. What happens should one of the steel mills announce a price increase within the next couple of weeks? With scrap poised to move higher, and lead times being decent at most of the […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have shortened slightly this month, though not yet enough to signal a definite trend. The current numbers suggest the mills are still maintaining relatively healthy order levels, but a change may be in the works. Lead times for steel delivery are an indicator of demand […]
Price negotiations with the mills have continued to loosen up as it’s rapidly becoming a buyer’s market. The vast majority of service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are open to price negotiations on nearly all products to win the orders. In the hot rolled segment, […]
Writen by: John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update On Tuesday I received a question about the SMU Price Momentum Indicator, which is currently pointing toward Neutral pricing over the next 30 days. Yesterday (Wednesday) I received the following note from one of our readers after reading Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update: […]
Housing starts slowed in January but remained at a solid pace, while building permits surged to a 13-year high. January starts were down 3.6 percent from December to an adjusted annual rate of 1,567,000, but were 21.4 percent higher than a year ago. Construction starts for single-family homes fell 5.9 percent compared to December. Multi-family […]
It is rare that market direction is clear and uncontested. There have been a few times during my 42-year steel career when it was obvious prices were going to be higher tomorrow than they are today. It was during one of those times in history that I began writing a note to my steel buying […]
Flat Rolled = 52.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 48.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers scaled back their flat rolled steel inventories at the end of January to 52.6 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, down from 62.9 in December, according to the SMU Service Center Inventories Report. This […]