Housing start data is on hiatus as the partial government shutdown continues. The National Association of Home Builders, however, estimates that single-family starts ended 2018 at 876,000 units, a 3 percent gain from the 2017 total of 848,900 in 2017. Builder confidence increased in January, rising two points to 58 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing […]
For those of you who haven’t spent much time on the Home Page of our website, you are probably unaware of us removing the video of me talking about our newsletter and that space (upper left side) is now the placeholder for a number of video testimonials about our newsletter and the SMU Steel Summit […]
When we go out for flat rolled and plate steel spot pricing, we do so in a number of ways in order to maximize the number of responses. This week SMU sent out an email inquiry requesting information on pricing, but also on lead times, inventories and foreign steel offers, and we solicited general open […]
Construction costs declined in December after a year of price spikes, but remained higher than a year ago, said the chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America. “Steep declines in fuel prices in December offset mixed costs for other construction inputs, but most materials and services posted higher year-over-year increases than in 2017,” […]
Auto production in North America exhibited the normal slowdown in December. This is a new report using LMC Automotive as the data source for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles rated at less than 6.0 metric tons gross vehicle […]
I was asked this evening if the JSW Ohio production tonnage is included in the weekly raw steel production report produced by the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI). In the fine print of their weekly report, the AISI states that 1st Quarter 2019 production is estimated at 30.5 million tons, which is lower than […]
If the prevailing view in the market proves correct, steel mills will announce a price increase soon—but it won’t stick. Two out of three steel executives responding to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this past week believe the mills will announce an increase in flat rolled prices by the end of January. But given […]
Last week, Steel Market Update concluded our early January analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel market trends. One of the key areas we watch is how service centers are handling spot pricing of flat rolled steels to their end customers. Over the years we have learned that when service centers are raising prices, […]
Steel Market Update asked: Are the Section 232 tariffs negatively impacting your business? The market is evenly split on the subject. About half of those responding to SMU’s questionnaire this week—primarily service center and OEM executives—say they have been hurt by the tariffs, while the other half say the tariffs have had no direct effect. […]
I heard from one of my trading contacts who lives inside of China over the weekend. He had attended an economic lecture, the topic of which has been banned in China. China’s economy is a mess. I will have more on the Chinese economy and what it might mean for North America in the coming […]
Mill lead times turned the corner on the new year little changed from mid-December. At less than four weeks for hot rolled and around six weeks for cold rolled and coated products, lead times for spot orders of most products are as short as they have been in over a year. While still in high […]
Steel Market Update’s first canvass of the new year shows a subtle shift in the price dynamic between mills and steel buyers. No doubt, buyers still have a lot of leverage and most mills are usually willing to talk price to secure the order. But SMU’s findings show a slight tightening in negotiations. In the […]
Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index began the year with another slight dip in optimism, as measured by both the Current Sentiment and the Future Sentiment three-month moving averages. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Index), […]
It is so rare that I get to spend two weeks in the office, and I think I am going to be here for another week or so. At the end of the month, I will be in Mississippi to conduct one of our Steel 101 workshops. The Starkville workshop is close to being sold […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, fell 4.9 percent in December to an index reading of 151.9. The decline was due to a 7.6 percent drop in the commercial component of the index, while the institutional component fell only 0.7 percent. Nonresidential planning made […]
Employment gains in manufacturing and construction were strong in December, as 301,000 jobs were created in the private sector and 11,000 in government, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing industries and then into private and government employees. Most of the goods-producing employees […]
I mentioned this in my pricing article earlier in this newsletter, but I think it bears repeating. When I was with Winner Steel (now called NLMK Sharon Coatings) we brought up two new coating lines. As each line came onstream it was imperative to get orders, so the line would run. One way to get […]
With finished steel prices continuing their second-half decline through the end of 2018, the market is holding its collective breath to see if the mills announce a price hike this month. Many believe they will try to raise prices, but most are doubtful they will succeed. Following is what industry sources told SMU this week: […]
U.S. auto sales topped the 17 million mark for the fourth year in a row. Total sales for the year are estimated at 17.2 million to 17.3 million vehicles. “New-vehicle sales were surprisingly strong in 2018 despite late cycle headwinds from higher interest rates and more nearly-new competition in the used market,” said Jonathan Smoke, […]
Total heating and cooling equipment shipments in November rose 2.4 percent compared to one year ago, according to data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) on Friday. Aside from the 5.1 percent slip in September, total monthly equipment shipments on a year-over-year basis had increased every month since November 2016. Residential and […]
When on calls with steel service center and manufacturing executives, one of the questions that always comes up is my view on the economy. I am not an economist and I defer to CRU and to economists like Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics (Alan speaks at the SMU Steel Summit Conference). I know Dr. Beaulieu’s […]
The New Year has started, the pace is a little slow for some, others have told me that their order books got a kick start yesterday. I have to imagine the differences are based on geography and product. This afternoon I had an interesting conversation with the head of commercial for a domestic steel mill. […]
Welcome to 2019! As we begin the New Year, I want to welcome everyone back to their offices or plants. I am looking forward to another interesting year as we continue to deal with the effects of Steel 232, anti-dumping and countervailing duties, threats of Section 232 for automotive and Section 301 on finished goods […]
Service centers are perilously close to capitulation as the percentage of respondents reporting service centers as lowering spot prices continues to increase. Manufacturing companies are telling Steel Market Update that they are receiving lower and lower spot pricing from their service center suppliers. In our latest flat rolled steel market trends analysis conducted this past […]
Tomorrow night is Christmas Eve and so I am not going to spend a lot of time talking about the steel industry. My words tonight are aimed at the heart as I wish each of you a wonderful holiday and a happy, healthy New Year. From all of us here at Steel Market Update. John […]
So, we have our service center inventories at 2.5 months of supply, down slightly from the 2.6 months we got from our distributor data suppliers the previous month. This is not from our survey; we decided to put that data aside as it was suspect – it had both buyers and sellers contributing to the […]
Continual controversy over trade and tariffs, volatile steel prices and unrest on Wall Street have clearly left many in the industry anxious and pessimistic about the year to come. Only about 20 percent of the steel executives who responded to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire expect 2019 to be a solid growth year […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index ended the year on a “down” note as our Current Sentiment Index, as measured this week as a single data point, was the lowest reading we have seen over the past two years. When viewed as a three-month-moving average, which helps smooth out the data and provide a clearer […]
Mill lead times suggest that demand for flat rolled steel products continues to bounce along the bottom as the year comes to a close, with no clear direction yet for the first quarter. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the […]
With steel prices continuing to decline, steel buyers remain in a strong negotiating position. Twice each month Steel Market Update canvasses the flat rolled and plate steel markets to gauge whether the steel mills are willing to work with their steel buying customers and negotiate steel pricing for orders placed this week. At least nine […]