Waiting for the rainbow. Don’t get me wrong, the weather here in Florida is absolutely perfect today (and has been all winter). Sky is blue. Birds are singing. Flowers are blooming. Inside it feels like it is raining. Actually, it feels like the thunderstorms are gathering. You can see the high tops of the clouds […]
Zooming – sounds like a new drug, doesn’t it? We will be hosting another SMU Community Chat Webinar on Wednesday, April 22, at 11:00 a.m. ET (and I promise to hit the “start” button on time this week). Speaking with me will be Bernard Swiecki of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR). We will discuss […]
Today we took our Price Momentum Indicator on flat rolled steel to Lower from Neutral. We are clearly seeing an erosion in pricing, which is expected to continue over the near term. The economy is heading into recession. Key indicators are pointing toward a slowdown in construction as states and local municipalities mandate construction projects […]
Architecture firms reported fewer new design projects in March as uncertainty grows regarding the length and impact of the coronavirus crisis. A special mid-month survey by the American Institute of Architects found that 28 percent of respondents reported directed delays in current projects or those slated to start in 30 days. An additional 11 percent […]
The January S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index showed home price growth at 3.9 percent prior to the coronavirus pandemic. “During the next two months, home price gains will likely continue to outpace inflation for Case-Shiller Index values seen through March,” says Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This is likely because most sales that settle during […]
Thirty-nine percent of contractors report that project owners have halted or canceled current construction projects amid deteriorating economic conditions, according to a survey by the Associated General Contractors of America. The project cancellations are particularly severe in light of new data showing that 42 states added construction jobs through February. “The abrupt plunge in economic […]
John Packard is taking some time off… By most readings of the government guidelines, steel is considered an “essential” industry during this virus crisis. Mills that produce steel products, and by extension service centers that distribute them, are critical to getting the economy back on track. For some steel-consuming sectors, however, their “essentialness” may be […]
John Packard is taking some time off… Among the many effects of the coronavirus on the steel market, no one is talking about Steelmageddon much these days. Announcements of new mills and capacity additions have been replaced by news of facility closures and furnace idlings. Concern has shifted from fears of overcapacity in the next […]
The coronavirus pandemic has caused more than one out of four contractors to halt or delay work on current projects, according to a new survey by the Associated General Contractors of America. As an industry, construction is the biggest consumer of steel worldwide. The survey results show how quickly market conditions have changed. AGC data […]
Sales of new homes in February rose 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 765,000, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Compared to February 2019, sales jumped 14 percent. “New home sales were solid in February before challenges associated with the coronavirus set […]
Existing-home sales jumped 6.5 percent in February, with all regions seeing higher sales except the Northeast, reports the National Association of Realtors. Sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in February, a 7.2 percent gain from a year ago. “February’s sales of over 5 million homes were the strongest since February […]
There is no way to plan for this… The stock market was up 2,100+ points today. I don’t know anyone personally who has contracted the COVID-19 virus. My kids are safe, albeit without incomes for the time being. Gas prices are below $2.00 and headed lower. The weather in Florida is perfect, and technically I […]
Spot prices appear to have turned a corner as a growing percentage of both service centers and their manufacturing customers report steel prices on the decrease. As the chart below shows, 24 percent of the service centers responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this past week now say they are lowering prices to their customers. […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steel products showed initial signs of shortening this week, according to returns from Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time, the busier the mill. The current lead times […]
Steel producers and distributors told Steel Market Update this week that they remain busy serving customers, despite the disruption to the economy from the coronavirus. Not surprisingly, the mills appear very willing to negotiate spot prices to keep business flowing. The majority of service center and manufacturing executives responding to SMU’s questionnaire on Monday and […]
News on the spread of the coronavirus changes by the hour, which effects the outlook of steel buyers. But as of early this past week, based on Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market, the steel sector appears to have weathered the worst of the bad news so far. Steel Prices Most executives responding to […]
John Packard is taking some time off… As we all hunker down (wondering if that’s the hint of a sore throat when we swallow), it’s easy to feel the walls closing in. The intellectual part of us knows the economy will return to normal eventually (indeed, there’s money to be made when the market comes […]
Coronavirus fears have taken a major toll on how steel executives view their prospects for success. Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, suffered the sharpest one-week decline in the index’s 11-year history. Sentiment plunged by 45 points, from a Current Sentiment reading of +58 down to +13, and a Future Sentiment reading […]
U.S. automakers are suspending production for nearly two weeks to help stop the spread of COVID-19. Ford, General Motors and FCA announced on Wednesday that they will stop all production in North America starting Thursday evening and tentatively ending March 30. “GM and the UAW have always put the health and safety of the people […]
Housing starts dipped 1.5 percent from January to February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,599,000, but were 39.2 percent higher than a year ago, according to a report from the U.S. Housing and Urban Development and Commerce Department. Single-family housing starts jumped 6.7 percent in February to 1,072,000 while starts for housing with […]
The new normal for me is talking to an industry executive on the phone and listening to the kids playing in the background…. We had a 45-point drop in both the Current and Future SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index this week (article is at top of tonight’s issue). This is the largest one-week change in […]
Construction employment numbers increased in January, but the Associated General Contractors of America says the coronavirus is likely to significantly affect employment beginning in March. “There is no doubt the coronavirus will have a significant impact on our economy, including the construction sector,” said Stephen E. Sandherr, the association’s chief executive officer. “That is why […]
The U.S. auto industry is taking steps to protect their workers in this unprecedented time of global pandemic. Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler and the UAW have formed a COVID-19/Coronavirus Task Force to implement enhanced protections for manufacturing and warehouse employees at all three companies. In a joint statement, the leaders of GM, Ford and […]
Flat Rolled = 46.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 49 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled As prices eroded in February, service centers further reduced their flat rolled inventories 4.6 percent month on month by month’s end, according to adjusted February data compared with January’s final. With 20 shipping days in February compared to […]
We had to change the way we calculate the adjusted data, which will also change how we derive our analysis. Previously, we adjusted the data to mirror the exact mix of service centers that responded to the previous month’s survey. We saw a decrease in participation in the March survey, which we can understand given […]
The world is changing, it is not ending. I expect the steel industry will go through some changes as well. In Europe, the car makers are closing manufacturing facilities. Europe seems to be a couple weeks ahead of us here in the United States. Will we see the same plant closures in a couple of […]
January heating and cooling equipment shipments came in at 1.56 million units, down 3.2 percent from the same month one year ago, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). This is the largest year-over-year decline in total shipments since June 2019 (down 5.8 percent). As a three-month moving average, total […]
Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, Steel Market Update has broken down the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet into coil and leveled, four thickness ranges, and how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. This update examines the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports into the U.S. for 2019 as a […]
Well, isn’t this special… Being Americans, I have seen my share of videos and cartoons where people are selling toilet paper and hand sanitizer like a drug deal. I must say I normally don’t have much food in the house. My freezer is now full. My son is a professional musician and last week he […]
The Department of Labor announced its final rules for the Industry-Recognized Apprenticeship Programs with the glaring exclusion of programs for the construction industry. “It remains troubling that the administration has wasted so much time, energy and political capital in creating a new apprenticeship program that is both deeply flawed and fails to address construction workforce […]