Using U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) data, Steel Market Update has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled; then it breaks out four thickness ranges and identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. Through September 2019, of the total cold rolled sheet and […]
United Auto Workers have ratified a new four-year contract with Ford with the approval by 56.3 percent of union members. The new contract includes a $9,000 signing bonus for full-time workers, performance bonuses, two 3 percent annual raises and two 4 percent lump sum payments. Health care costs remain unchanged. “Every Ford employee and temporary […]
Housing starts grew 3.8 percent from September to October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,314,000 and rose 8.5 percent from October 2018, according to the latest report from the Commerce Department and U.S. Housing and Urban Development. Single-family housing starts were up 2 percent from September and housing starts in buildings of five […]
Today I was on a conference call with steel buyers associated with HARDI, the trade organization whose members sell galvanized steel and other products to mechanical contractors. We have an article about the call in this evening’s issue, but there was one fact that was brought up by multiple executives: the price increases “have not […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of October: Flat Rolled = 53 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 57 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Sheet steel prices declined rapidly throughout October, and the SMU Service Center Inventories Report shows that service centers pared down inventories […]
Do you think the country is going to be a little distracted this week with all the witnesses in President Trump’s impeachment hearings? A reminder of the results of one of our real-time polls where 53 percent of the 493 individuals responding to a question about who they were going to vote for in the […]
Earlier this week Steel Market Update went out to a group of steel buyers to gather pricing information and market intelligence regarding how they were reacting to the recent price announcements, and if they thought this round of increases would result in yet another dead cat bounce. (A dead cat bounce is one where prices […]
Flat rolled steel prices are on the way up following two recent rounds of price increases. Steel Market Update has been anticipating the turnaround in prices as the market has been near the point of “capitulation” for several weeks. Capitulation is the point when 75 percent or more of our service center survey respondents are […]
As flat rolled steel prices move higher, we need to remember that prior to the price increases there was an abnormally large spread between hot rolled based prices and those of cold rolled and coated. Instead of being $100-$140 per ton, they had been running as high as $180-$200 per ton. The spread was created […]
Although too early to be called a trend, the latest readings in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyer’s Sentiment Index show a slight uptick in optimism following recent price increase announcements by the mills. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful […]
Not surprisingly following the mills’ $40 price increase announcements Oct. 24-25, negotiations between steelmakers and steel buyers have tightened somewhat. What is surprising is that roughly two out of three buyers still report mills actively negotiating spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized, as well as plate. In the hot rolled segment, 62 […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled showed early signs of lengthening in the first week of November following the $40 per ton price increase announcements Oct. 24-25. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. Thus, this data suggests the mills are getting busier as buyers […]
September heating and cooling equipment shipments came in at 1.58 million units, down 0.4 percent from the same month one year ago, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Residential and commercial storage water heater shipments rose 2.2 percent year over year to a combined 674,144 units; 654,894 units were […]
The domestic steel mills announced new $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) price increases on flat rolled this past week. This is the second price increase on flat rolled over the past two months. The domestic mills, led by ArcelorMittal USA, announced $40 per ton spot base price increases on Oct. 24-25 and were able to collect […]
The day was bubbling with rumors as I was actively speaking with both plate and flat rolled steel buyers. They were telling me to expect a price increase announcement on both products. The plate guys were much less confident that any increase would “stick,” but it is worth trying. On the flat rolled side, mill […]
The last few weeks have been busy ones for the U.S. auto industry. A 40-day strike by the United Auto Workers at General Motors ended with ratification of a new four-year labor agreement, allowing negotiations to move forward at Ford. Ford negotiations wrapped up in just three days with a tentative agreement now ready to […]
Commerce Department Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data for September confirms the contraction that began in June 2019. CPIP expenditures data for September was released on Nov 1. Through September, total construction had negative momentum every month since October last year. In the period June through September, total construction declined each month on a year-over-year […]
I have noticed many articles in the mainline press over the past few days slamming the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs as not helping the steel industry. Most of the articles point to the recent loss announced by U.S. Steel as proof, along with minimal to no job gains in the industry. I don’t think […]
The Associated General Contractors of America maintains that trade fights with China, the EU and other countries are undermining demand for private sector construction projects. “The best way to make sure our economy continues to expand is to quickly resolve a series of trade disputes that have contributed to business uncertainty and likely held back […]
John Packard is traveling… Eddie Lehner, Ryerson president and CEO, is optimistic that carbon steel prices will bottom in the fourth quarter. “Given where prices are now, the recent price increases have a better chance of sticking than the ones that were announced in Q2 and Q3,” he commented during the company’s third-quarter conference call […]
FCA and Peugeot announced a $48 billion merger on Thursday that will make the combined company the fourth largest automaker in the world. The 50/50 merger will have combined revenues of nearly $190 billion and annual unit sales of about 8.6 million vehicles. Together the company will employ roughly 410,000 employees. Peugeot parent PSA Group […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
The United Auto Workers and Ford Motor Co. have announced a tentative agreement just three days after talks began in “earnest” on Monday. “Our national negotiators elected by their local unions have voted to recommend to the UAW-Ford National Council the proposed tentative agreement,” said UAW Vice President Rory Gamble. “Our negotiating team worked diligently […]
The Associated General Contractors of America are calling for comprehensive immigration reform and additional workforce funding to address a shortage of qualified labor. Despite the widespread job gains, AGC’s latest survey found 80 percent of contractors say hourly craftworker positions remain difficult to fill. Construction employment grew in 244, or 68 percent, out of 358 […]
Home prices rose in August but at a slowing pace, says S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 3.2 percent annual gain compared to 3.1 percent in July. An annual gain of 1.5 percent was reported for the 10-City Composite compared to 1.6 percent in July. […]
London, Brexit, new election, split country. As I was standing in line to enter the House of Lords, the gentleman to my left began discussing how Brexit has severed parties and even families. No longer can British families talk about their government openly. I heard the theme on many occasions as I traveled about London […]
United Auto Workers have moved on to negotiations with Ford now that a new labor agreement has been approved at General Motors. Preliminary negotiations have been ongoing since July 15, but talks have now ramped up as the UAW-Ford team puts together a final contract for the 55,000 Ford union workers. Rory Gamble, UAW-Ford vice […]
John Packard is traveling… While it’s too early to tell how the market will fully react to last week’s price increase announcements by the flat rolled mills, change is clearly afoot, based on the findings from SMU’s canvass of the market over the past two days. How high will prices go, and for how long? […]
Steel Market Update’s Current and Future Buyers Sentiment Indexes inched up a few points this week, but remain near their lowest levels in six years. The goal of SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today (Current Sentiment Index), as well […]
Steel Market Update’s negotiations data showed just a hint of tightening in price talks between the mills and their customers this past week, perhaps in anticipation of the $40 price increase on flat rolled steel announced by the mills on Thursday and Friday. The data, gathered by SMU prior to the price increase announcements, shows […]