Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


Well, isn’t this special…

Being Americans, I have seen my share of videos and cartoons where people are selling toilet paper and hand sanitizer like a drug deal.

I must say I normally don’t have much food in the house. My freezer is now full.

John Packard Summit 18My son is a professional musician and last week he was on tour in Switzerland and about to head into Germany. Tour canceled. He will be back in the U.S. this evening (arriving in Boston from Sweden).

The music business is not among those jobs that are going to pay the bills as we get over this pandemic hump. He may be reaching out to you in the coming days working on some special projects for me.

My daughter works for Wolfgang Puck catering business in Los Angeles. She was recently assigned to Netflix. A Netflix employee came down with the virus. My daughter will be coming to Florida for a month….

I just checked on the cost of an airline ticket from Boston to West Palm Beach = $37 one way, every day, no restrictions. From Los Angeles to West Palm Beach = $147 one way.

The world has changed.

So far, the steel industry has been one of the insulated areas of the economy. Whether that continues is a big unknown. If my kids are any indication, cash is going to be tight, and there will be an impact on consumption if we must hunker down for much more than a month. My fingers are crossed that the U.S. gets a handle on controlling the pandemic very soon.

The COVID-19 (coronavirus) has impacted many of the metals industry events around the United States. The Platts Chicago Steel Conference, which was to be held March 16-17, has been cancelled. The Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner, which was scheduled for May 14 has been moved to Sept. 17. Our Steel 101 workshop, scheduled for March 31 & April 1, has been postponed indefinitely (we are looking at a June date, but it is too early to be able to make any specific plans).

What has not been cancelled:

The North American Steel Alliance Annual Meeting scheduled for April 29-May 1 has not been cancelled to date.

The 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference scheduled for Aug. 24-26 has not been cancelled.

If you would like SMU to mention your steel-related event, please send a note to info@SteelMarketUpdate.com

I received many comments regarding the Todd Leebow and Majestic Steel article. Most companies wanted to know how their company could be highlighted in future articles. My response is: If there is something unique about your company that you don’t mind sharing with the rest of the industry, we are interested in covering it. Some thoughts come to mind such as use of cutting edge technology, work you are doing to change your company as a hub for innovation, milestones recently set by your company that would interest the rest of the steel community. If you have some thoughts, please send them to me at John@SteelMarketUpdate.com and Tim Triplett at Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com

We will begin our mid-March flat rolled and plate steel market analysis at 8 a.m. tomorrow. If you receive an invitation, please take a few minutes to answer the first question at the end of the invite email, which will then take you to the rest of the survey.

Everyone be safe, wash your hands, if you are not feeling well follow the guidelines outlined by your company and the CDC. I don’t want anyone to become ill. I’m expecting to see everyone at our conference at the end of August….

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

Sincerely,

John Packard, President & CEO

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

Final thoughts

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday: