Edmunds analysts estimate auto sales will top 4.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, pushing the total for the year to 17.1 million and the fifth year in a row above the 17 million mark. “The fact that new car sales have stayed this strong for this long really defies the odds, especially given […]
Construction spending improved in November, boosting optimism among contractors regarding new projects for 2020. Construction spending rose 4.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.324 trillion from November 2018 to November 2019, while industry employment grew in 63 percent or 226 out of 358 metro areas, according to a new analysis of federal […]
For those of you who stretched out the Christmas, Hanukkah and New Year’s Holidays and are just returning to your offices – Happy New Year and welcome to the decade that promises to make the last 10 years look tame. Steel Market Update will return to our normal market analysis schedule this week, and we […]
S&P Dow Jones reported that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index gained 3.3 percent in October, compared to 3.2 percent in the previous month. The 20-City composite posted a 2.2 percent year-over-year gain, while the 10-City composite rose 2.2 percent. “October’s U.S. housing data continue to be reassuring,” says Craig J. […]
Key Market Indicators showed a substantial improvement in market trends in the December data. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data SMU has reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and […]
First issue of the New Year. For that matter, today is the first issue of the new decade. It will probably take awhile to get used to 2020 vs. 2019. Of course, with the political climate and it being an election year, maybe we will have 2020 ingrained in our heads sooner rather than later. […]
November sales of new single-family homes increased 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 719,000 units after a downward revision to the October rate. “Fueled by the limited number of resales available for purchase, low interest rates and low unemployment, new home sales are finishing the year strong,” said Greg Ugalde, chairman of […]
Housing starts increased 3.2 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,365,000. Starts were 1.36 percent above the November 2018 rate. Commencement of construction for single-family homes increased 2.4 percent from October, while starts for buildings of five units or more increased 2.3 percent. New construction was strongest in the South with […]
Welcome back from the Christmas Holidays. This is the 149th Executive level issue of Steel Market Update produced during calendar year 2019. It is also anticipated to be the last Executive issue prior to the New Year. On Monday we will publish our last Premium issue of the year, our 49th for 2019. Christmas and […]
Steel buyers sentiment has seen little change in the past several weeks as the market pauses to digest the latest price increases and looks ahead to the beginning of the new year. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today […]
In four rounds of price increases since late October, flat rolled steel mills have raised prices by a total of $150 per ton. How much are they collecting? Some, but certainly not all, according to the service center and manufacturing executives who responded to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week. SMU data places the average […]
Happy Holidays! I expect this week to be a tad on the slow side as buyers and sellers of steel celebrate Hanukkah and Christmas. One year ago, benchmark hot rolled prices were averaging $745 per ton ($37.25/cwt), down from the cycle peak achieved the week of July 23, 2018, at $915 per ton ($45.75/cwt). Since […]
All the laid off auto workers were back on the job at the beginning of November following the GM strike and restarts at the auto plans reportedly went smoothly. This analysis is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for […]
After a brief hesitation early in the month, mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have continued to increase. The latest data shows slightly longer lead times for all flat rolled products except for Galvalume. Plate lead times have extended, as well. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand […]
Negotiations between steelmakers and steel buyers continue to tighten. Responses to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week indicate the mills are slightly less flexible on price for most products as they work to collect four increases announced since late October totaling $150 per ton. In the hot rolled segment, the majority of buyers […]
FCA and PSA Peugeot signed a binding agreement on Dec. 18 providing for a 50/50 merger to create the fourth largest global auto manufacturer by volume and third largest by revenue. The combined company will have annual unit sales of 8.7 million vehicles and expected revenue of nearly $189 billion, based on 2018 results. The […]
Existing home sales slipped in November after making gains in October, according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors. Completed transactions fell 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million last month, but were up 2.7 percent from a year ago. The decline is not a cause for worry, […]
U.S. Steel tonight announced their intention of focusing their company on three core assets: Gary Works, Mon Valley Works and Big River Steel. This comment was made at the same time they announced their intention to idle a large portion of their Great Lakes Works near Detroit. WARN notices have been sent to the 1,500+ […]
Steel Market Update conducts two flat rolled and plate steel market trends surveys every month. Our early December analysis indicates the flat rolled distributors are raising spot prices to their end-user customers, and in the process supporting at least a portion of the four recent price increases totaling $150 per ton ($7.50/cwt). Whether the mills […]
Whether mills succeed in raising spot prices depends in large part on the support they receive from distributors. The latest Steel Market Update data from service centers, verified by data from their customers, indicates that steel prices have maintained their upward trajectory into the new year and show no signs of slowing. As indicated by […]
Builders are feeling confident about the market for newly built single-family homes. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose five points to 76 in December after an upward revision to the November reading. This is the highest reading for the HMI since June 1999. “Builders are continuing to see the housing […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of flat rolled and plate inventories and shipments for the month of November: Flat Rolled = 51.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 56 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Sheet steel inventories increased in November, and the SMU Service Center Inventories Report shows that service centers have an abundance of […]
November housing starts increased 3.2 percent from October and 13.6 percent from November 2018, indicates the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Starts decreased in the Northeast and Midwest, but increased 10.3 percent in the South and 1.4 percent in the West. Single-family starts were […]
We are quickly moving toward the Christmas and Hanukkah Holidays with Hanukkah beginning Sunday evening and Christmas next Wednesday. Which reminds me, I think I have some shopping to get done (I haven’t started yet). Am I the only one? My expectation is for the markets to calm down over the next couple of weeks […]
October heating and cooling equipment shipments came in at 1.52 million units, down 2.3 percent from the same month one year ago, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). This is the second consecutive month in which total shipments have decreased on a year-over-year basis. Residential and commercial storage water […]
New rounds of flat rolled price increases began on Friday with ArcelorMittal USA and NLMK USA taking the lead at $40 per ton. My expectation is the other mills will follow on Monday and Tuesday of this week. Watch lead times – with some of the mills they are beginning to stretch. Steel Dynamics has […]
CNBC reported comments made by White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow on Tuesday saying, “The reality is those tariffs are still on the table.” This is in reference to the tweet from President Trump regarding steel from Brazil and Argentina. Steel buyers should be aware that there has not been a presidential proclamation, or anything […]
I have just returned from three days in New Orleans where I attended the HARDI annual conference. I spoke to the steel council on Sunday, and I referenced some of my comments in Sunday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update. I stayed until this morning because I wanted to hear Alan Beaulieu speak to see […]
Steel buyers sentiment, which had been trending up for the past several weeks right along with steel prices, showed the first signs of leveling off this week. Both the Current and Future Sentiment readings had only a 1 point change in the latest data. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and […]
The Dodge Momentum Index gained 2.9 percent in November to register 155.3. The monthly index measures the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending by a full year. November’s increase was primarily due to a 6.5 percent increase in the institutional building index. The commercial component […]