November was a strong month for light vehicle sales rising to 17.2 million units, (annualized) from 16.5 million in October. This was the best result since August. So far in 2014 sales are averaging 16.45 million units, the best rate since 2006. Light trucks increased faster than automobiles in November presumably boosted by low gas […]
As we approach the end of the year we begin to think about what is ahead of us for 2015. Will we see the massive amounts of foreign steel continue to flood the domestic (USA) market or will buyers back off as domestic prices slide closer to foreign offers? The expectation is for demand to […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) released their Steel Buyers Sentiment Index this afternoon. Sentiment, which is a measure as to how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment, rose 4 points from the beginning of December and is now at +56. Positive (+) […]
What may be a disappointment to the domestic (U.S. and Canadian) steel mills is both manufacturing companies and service centers intend to buy more foreign steel during 2015 than they purchased during calendar year 2014. This is most disturbing when you consider that 2014 will go down as one of the biggest years in history […]
Steel Market Update conducted our last flat rolled steel market survey earlier today (Thursday, December 18th). During the survey process we asked some new questions in an effort to see what will be the new trending issues once we move into calendar year 2015. One of the questions posed to those who participated in our […]
Lead times at the domestic steel mills continue to be shorter than what we saw this time last year (when prices were rising). The average lead time for benchmark hot rolled coil dropped to an average of 3.53 weeks based on the results from this week’s SMU flat rolled steel market survey. As you can […]
U.S. and Canadian steel mills are more willing to negotiate this week than they were during the first week of December, according to the respondents of our latest SMU flat rolled steel market survey. We found 93 percent of the respondents to our survey reporting hot rolled mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled pricing. […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast carbon flat rolled shipments out of the U.S. steel service centers would total 2,100,000 tons. Earlier this week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported distributors shipped 2,051,600 tons. We over-forecast shipments by 48,400 tons. Our forecast was based on shipments being 4.0 percent higher than November 2013 and […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. indicates hot rolled coil price momentum continued its downward trend for the 17th week in a row. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
A quick reminder to those who have registered (or are about to register) for our Steel 101 workshop outside of Charleston, SC on January 20 & 21, 2015. The special rate ($91/nite) we have negotiated with our hotel (Charleston Harbor Resort & Marina) will expire at the end of the day on Friday (December 20th). […]
Starts in November declined to an annual rate 1,028,000, the same as the number for September but down from 1,045,000 in October. The three month moving average, (3MMA) rose to 1,034,000, (Figure 1). This was the third consecutive month that the 3MMA of starts exceeded a million units. The year over year growth rate of […]
Below is the latest data issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through October 2014. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for October 2014 increased 5.2 percent, […]
There has been a lot of information floating about the marketplace regarding the Chinese steel rebates and especially those represented as special alloy through the addition of boron to the steel. We wrote about this subject in early November and we remind our readers to go back and review the article entitled: Chinese Boron Added […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 12th, 2014, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,893 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count is a decrease of 27 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 29 to 1,546 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 346 rigs, […]
A quick note to advise our readers of our Holiday publishing and office schedule. We will continue to publish as normal through Tuesday, December 23rd. We will not publish our newsletter on Thursday, December 25th and Sunday, December 28th unless there is important breaking news that we feel must be shared with our readers. We […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. indicates hot rolled coil price momentum continued its downward trend for the 16th week in a row. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
I always learn new things every time I attend an industry related conference. I find being exposed to industry experts, active steel buyers in one location (with very few to no suppliers around), business owners who feel comfortable in their surroundings, and a few cocktails thrown into the mix, makes for interesting times. I highly […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 5th, 2014, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,920 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count is an increase of 3 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs up 3 to 1,575 rigs, gas rigs unchanged at 344 rigs, and […]
Part of my talk at the 2014 HARDI conference was regarding galvanized imports which reached 325,000 net tons in October and appear will be approximately 300,000 tons when the November Census Data numbers are released later this month. To put this into perspective, at this point last year the U.S. received 150,000 net tons and […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index came in at +52 this week. This is the same reading we got back in the middle of November 2014 The +52, which is within the optimistic range for our index, was 10 points less enthusiastic than what we measured at the beginning of November. One year ago our current […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early December flat rolled steel market analysis this week. As part of the survey process, SMU asks those responding questions about flat rolled steel mill lead times. From their responses we create our average lead time for the industry by product. This allows us the ability to evaluate whether […]
Based strictly on the results from our Steel Market Update flat rolled market survey results, domestic steel mills are willing to negotiate prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products. This is something that we see on a regular basis as lead times slip and the need for orders increases at the domestic […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. indicates hot rolled coil price momentum continued its downward trend for the 15th week in a row. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. The Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index which was suspended earlier this year was expected to be re-instituted this month but […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. October data was released on December 2nd. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect […]
There has been a fair amount of interest being generated regarding our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop which will be held in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina on January 20 & 21, 2015. If you go to our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com and click on the Steel 101 link in the Events […]
It has now been five weeks (October 28th) since AK Steel became the first domestic steel mill to announce a price increase on flat rolled steel. The relatively modest $20 per ton move was, in many steel buyers’ opinions, meant to stem the decline in steel prices. At that point in time benchmark hot rolled […]
A member of the financial community contacted me earlier today asking about rumors of a new price increase by the domestic steel mills as we move into January 2015. He stated that another steel-related publication had quoted a service center as believing price announcements would be coming soon. First, I have not heard directly from […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. indicates hot rolled coil price momentum continued its downward trend for the 14th week in a row. MoMo, which is a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements […]
With crude oil prices breaking through $80 per barrel, all eyes are on the Baker Hughes rig count data. The question is will the lower oil prices affect the number of wells being drilled? Most assume there will be an impact, however, it could have a lag effect and take time before there is a […]